# What will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit in May 2026 — ↑ $280

> ↑ $280 leads at 17%, runner-up 4% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 59 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-amazoncom-inc-amzn-hit-may
Updated: 2026-05-28T21:20:07.297Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: ↑ $280 at 17%
- Runner-up: ↑ $288 at 4%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $280 | 17¢ | +3pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-amazoncom-inc-amzn-hit-in-may-2026-280-polymarket-0x552a1017b5c8f574da1b269d0eb265701ce80becdb07bd0285b7370cc9f209c3 |
| ↑ $288 | 4¢ | ±0 | $222 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-amazoncom-inc-amzn-hit-in-may-2026-288-polymarket-0x282d1456769e594c26558ced06a7684dd75af85c05a5f5e111ae5bbd20775e24 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↑ $280 | ↑ $288 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 26 | 12 |
| 2026-05-21 | 25 | 6 |
| 2026-05-28 | 23 | 4 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-25 · ↑ $280 −8pp 26→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-21 · ↑ $280 +7pp 18→25¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · ↑ $280 +7pp 13→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · ↑ $280 −5pp 18→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · ↑ $280 +3pp 20→23¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract reflects market expectations that Amazon's stock will touch $256 or below at some point during May 2026, currently priced at 45% probability. The leading bearish outcome dominates over the bullish $280+ scenarios, suggesting traders are pricing in either consolidation or downside pressure on the stock this month. The gap between the bearish ($256 and below) and bullish ($280 and above) contracts indicates uncertainty about Amazon's near-term direction. Key drivers include broader tech sector momentum, earnings announcements or guidance revisions, macroeconomic factors affecting cloud and consumer spending, and any significant company-specific news. The resolution depends entirely on whether Amazon's intraday or closing price touches these specific levels before May 31, 2026, making it sensitive to daily volatility and market moves rather than fundamental changes.

### Key factors

- Amazon's current price proximity to $256 and $280 strike levels—distance from current spot determines probability of intraday touches
- 24h trading volume concentration ($3,428 on $280 call, $2,870 on $256 put) shows active disagreement between bullish and bearish traders
- The $256 contract leading at 45% versus $280 at 24% suggests marginal bearish lean, not strong conviction—only 21-point price gap to breach
- Remaining calendar days in May and historical volatility patterns for AMZN during this period affect likelihood of touching either boundary
- Any AWS earnings, macro data releases, or Fed communications in late May could create the volatility needed to touch extreme price levels

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-amazoncom-inc-amzn-hit-may
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=what-amazoncom-inc-amzn-hit-may

## License

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