# What animals will Trump say in May

> Chicken leads at 43%, runner-up 40% across 16 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 39 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-animals-trump-say-may
Updated: 2026-05-28T19:20:07.380Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: Chicken at 43%
- Runner-up: Rabbit / Bunny at 40%
- Outcomes: 16 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $156

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicken | 43¢ | +2pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/what-animals-will-trump-say-in-may-chicken-polymarket-0x054b19858a092d4f7c10aa7e08265d80baf63d571436f99e52d3aecef93403e0 |
| Rabbit / Bunny | 40¢ | +1pp | $8 | polymarket | /markets/what-animals-will-trump-say-in-may-rabbit-bunny-polymarket-0xd070e6a8437ff0d70831493dd1e711b2260009788d23c379cd74329ee24b6de4 |
| Turtle | 37¢ | +1pp | $6 | polymarket | /markets/what-animals-will-trump-say-in-may-turtle-polymarket-0xa7bf37a35d2f85f368cbeabe1aed76d220784aab3e90f31cd768a97475abb2e4 |
| Goat | 30¢ | −7pp | $31 | polymarket | /markets/what-animals-will-trump-say-in-may-goat-polymarket-0x764e34f82d6d71b0b53c9816690464f24a4e245ca0854b624151cd040828a29f |
| Hawk | 29¢ | +1pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/what-animals-will-trump-say-in-may-hawk-polymarket-0x3a0439ed74b6ff49c748d8250e128a1701a5bb898ed4e4e63bb8c87238c714c9 |
| Cat | 23¢ | −11pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/what-animals-will-trump-say-in-may-cat-polymarket-0xcfb5a241ede731331c71772e489652ff48eeaacac7e53fa26a6e20c768855cb2 |
| Kangaroo | 22¢ | ±0 | $7 | polymarket | /markets/what-animals-will-trump-say-in-may-kangaroo-polymarket-0x0a5ad239f2da6bcfe25b4bac553c30eba230e6078354bbff75b9966dad4c0e74 |
| Wolf | 20¢ | −15pp | $35 | polymarket | /markets/what-animals-will-trump-say-in-may-wolf-polymarket-0x1c6e3a691807f863ee663802d8ed73451702c3b0dbae7a1b4f0f16a745bf0a9a |
| Deer | 20¢ | +1pp | $12 | polymarket | /markets/what-animals-will-trump-say-in-may-deer-polymarket-0x3e36c4c9d0418ae9d5aa6fe772fd93db36db744c9a1b1aac7d717665eea4d58f |
| Mouse | 20¢ | −2pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/what-animals-will-trump-say-in-may-mouse-polymarket-0xbb74e6b7534b5289070ce1b47db9daaad1d902890d69a28c36b8a7dda3d7a6e6 |
| Whale | 20¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-animals-will-trump-say-in-may-whale-polymarket-0xe6cd18a3d579db04da1d975d966fd1f3e1bbc013f35866972c7b8728c85ef914 |
| Mosquito | 18¢ | −1pp | $16 | polymarket | /markets/what-animals-will-trump-say-in-may-mosquito-polymarket-0xbbf2c1cdebdfdcd44edd989ce7fa99f4f6709ea73aa528877edda8a21711db7f |
| Panther | 17¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-animals-will-trump-say-in-may-panther-polymarket-0x97b2cbb792c83ac7ce359e9d3fda89b7604b2a8188243d9c41d69a32de3be457 |
| Frog | 16¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-animals-will-trump-say-in-may-frog-polymarket-0xa07fd14ce04d4d6f07b760146b09d5fa5831f8102ab59f3d6929b711db512b40 |
| Pig | 16¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-animals-will-trump-say-in-may-pig-polymarket-0xaa1ee8bafa18c35fe5100b1d0e8231fb6aaf55c024eeb19f48d6fc16993a2ea1 |
| Hippo / Hippopotamus | 8¢ | ±0 | $12 | polymarket | /markets/what-animals-will-trump-say-in-may-hippo-hippopota-polymarket-0x6b1752236176563749cb664a176560361117f2926028c554bc3d64392298b0a2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Chicken | Rabbit / Bunny | Turtle |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 41 | 41 | 35 |
| 2026-05-26 | 41 | 41 | 35 |
| 2026-05-27 | 41 | 41 | 36 |
| 2026-05-28 | 43 | 42 | 37 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-26 · Wolf +33pp 11→44¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · Wolf −15pp 49→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · Cat −11pp 36→25¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · Cat −8pp 44→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · Goat −7pp 38→31¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This prediction estimates the likelihood that Donald Trump will mention at least one animal by name during public statements in May 2026. The 50% probability on 'Cat' reflects uncertainty about both Trump's speaking frequency and whether his remarks will include animal references. The current distribution suggests 'Chicken' (40¢) and 'Kangaroo' (24¢) are secondary expectations, indicating traders anticipate either multiple animal mentions or concentration around common references. The outcome resolves based on documented public statements—speeches, interviews, social media posts, or press conferences—during the calendar month. Factors influencing this probability include Trump's scheduled appearances and communication patterns, the specificity required for resolution (whether partial names or clear animal references count), and historical baselines from previous months. May 31, 2026 marks the final deadline for statements to be included in resolution.

### Key factors

- Trump's confirmed public speaking schedule and media availability for May 2026 affects the probability of any animal mention occurring
- Market pricing divergence ('Cat' at 48¢ vs 'Chicken' at 40¢) suggests disagreement on whether references will be deliberate or incidental
- Resolution criteria interpretation—whether colloquial animal references ('piggy bank') or only direct animal names qualify—materially affects contract outcomes
- Historical frequency of Trump mentioning specific animals in prior months provides baseline for assessing whether May follows typical patterns
- Competition between 16 distinct animal contracts means total probabilities exceed 100%, indicating genuine uncertainty rather than consensus

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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