# What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027 — 5 Gwei

> Closed. Last odds frozen 13 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-hit
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: crypto · Topic: oil
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: 10 Gwei at 47%
- Runner-up: 5 Gwei at 31%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Gwei | 47¢ | +7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-h-polymarket-0x9cd09f37da8da9995d5bdba7b386b89e09dd5dcfed0f001f1ce5dfa7d3cfd76a |
| 5 Gwei | 31¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-h-polymarket-0xa6a9daa0a7576efdf9edef5095c120059c80f0ddf6a5af75e0b000a646e0d16e |
| 15 Gwei | 13¢ | +1pp | $1 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-h-polymarket-0xe32a73414fb99afa84e4a56141e20dd4f3d3e1a3d1d266bb0360ac7e1c0c6063 |
| 25 Gwei | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-h-polymarket-0x9ea0030337e6416cfbd5e9a52ffb4c80575953b45a52bc513f2d7ecbe299d5f2 |
| 20 Gwei | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-h-polymarket-0x85d9eadb263a3688205737d1c624458de2f9ef2cc5c1cfbb765babad6bfdcacc |
| 40 Gwei | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-h-polymarket-0xb5d84b0d831b64feb65dbd8f8b6ff92ac739cfdd13676770d2b13087f1a0d386 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 10 Gwei | 5 Gwei | 15 Gwei |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 33 | 39 | — |
| 2026-05-23 | 34 | 37 | 15 |
| 2026-06-05 | 27 | 32 | — |
| 2026-06-09 | 21 | 31 | 11 |
| 2026-06-12 | 34 | 18 | 10 |
| 2026-06-18 | 44 | 29 | 13 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-12 · 10 Gwei +24pp 10→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-12 · 5 Gwei +9pp 9→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-13 · 10 Gwei +7pp 34→41¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-18 · 10 Gwei +7pp 37→44¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-13 · 5 Gwei +6pp 18→24¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents traders' assessment that Ethereum's average monthly gas prices will reach 5 Gwei at some point before 2027—currently priced at 55% likelihood. Gas prices on Ethereum depend primarily on network congestion and demand for block space. They fluctuate based on transaction volume, which is driven by DeFi activity, NFT trading, and broader crypto market participation. The current 55% probability reflects moderate confidence this threshold will be breached, though significant uncertainty remains. Key drivers include whether Ethereum adoption accelerates, whether Layer 2 solutions reduce pressure on mainnet capacity, and macro market conditions affecting on-chain activity. The absence of a single resolution date means gas prices must hit this level at any point during the remaining months of 2026 for the contract to settle affirmatively.

### Key factors

- Current Ethereum base fees typically range 20-100+ Gwei during peak periods; reaching 5 Gwei would require sustained low network usage or represents historical levels from bear markets
- Layer 2 adoption (Arbitrum, Optimism, Base) directly reduces mainnet transaction demand and gas competition, lowering prices independently of broader market conditions
- Macro crypto cycles and retail participation spikes drive volatile on-chain activity; bull markets historically produce elevated gas fees, while bear markets see reduced competition for block space
- Ethereum protocol upgrades or fee-burning mechanism changes could alter gas dynamics, though no major scheduled updates target gas reduction before year-end 2026
- The 47% runner-up contract suggests meaningful disagreement among traders on whether sustained sub-5-Gwei levels are achievable under realistic network demand scenarios

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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