# What will Bitcoin outperform in April — NVIDIA (NVDA)

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 17 contracts — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-bitcoin-outperform-april
Updated: 2026-06-08T04:20:12.703Z
Category: crypto · Topic: bitcoin
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 17 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $168K

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 55,000 | 72¢ | −2pp | $40K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-55000-polymarket-0x752fa61c93f16c4b15e85b0bd438d9c684176b0ea7b319a84c8aca34616e8a8c |
| ↑ 90,000 | 27¢ | ±0 | $34K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-90000-polymarket-0xbb379a14cd03f68c35c279ddbd928a6326f4fd2e21827f8cdaaf59715d6df50e |
| ↑ 100,000 | 19¢ | ±0 | $17K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-100000-polymarket-0xdaa4866bae18be58c5a79d2aeeffd035ec78f1bb49dbd88f72993997778a990f |
| ↓ 50,000 | 56¢ | −4pp | $14K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-50000-polymarket-0xce3c54c3e773e8b3bf73e4c12af93205b21195d03b9c386e22f274b9acfc2c56 |
| ↓ 45,000 | 41¢ | −2pp | $14K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-45000-polymarket-0x024b68f77bfc019341ee3db8f57c103334e4b9430bba4746d8c94aafd8b36fee |
| ↓ 40,000 | 30¢ | −2pp | $13K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-40000-polymarket-0x1e5564c1a2a6839cc2780a889437c63786a2c2ec5e95569b710ee659a3e8baa2 |
| ↑ 160,000 | 4¢ | ±0 | $12K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-160000-polymarket-0x472c9035786b390c08e674fc60bddda488957e1b8aecad3f5480cc531a0754b0 |
| ↑ 110,000 | 14¢ | ±0 | $4K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-110000-polymarket-0x63eaf41ce1f475323e2202d7dfa3b1def8b82cd166f7007c50bfbf47615c7b01 |
| ↑ 130,000 | 8¢ | −1pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-130000-polymarket-0x885a6abefad122348b4fbd503473d7fd1f9035d0438cf988a7591620f316a859 |
| ↓ 10,000 | 5¢ | ±0 | $4K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-10000-polymarket-0xd8a5843555ba95455a28d895660c07c59b615184bf4ae64893992f3504797d29 |
| ↓ 35,000 | 21¢ | −1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-35000-polymarket-0x2745c38ff0617cb345c1d2df19b4f74ea777508e07411e88eeb6ab3affcda2a2 |
| ↑ 150,000 | 5¢ | +1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-150000-polymarket-0xa7b594ae07d5c1590fa86028fcc2f8705990437237416556c05837a08b2e1cda |
| ↓ 30,000 | 14¢ | ±0 | $2K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-30000-polymarket-0x903a1387e6414be5529efc8f7757e30371e6698de9d68fa4ce33252009db69ef |
| Bitcoin hits $1m | 49¢ | ±0 | $2K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-bitcoin-hits-1m-polymarket-0xbb57ccf5853a85487bc3d83d04d669310d28c6c810758953b9d9b91d1aee89d2 |
| ↓ 15,000 | 5¢ | −1pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-15000-polymarket-0xa885bfe10688056a9d0f4e9a1523bfa18f66fda065f0400d714ba54776083713 |
| ↑ 170,000 | 3¢ | ±0 | $359 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-170000-polymarket-0x9affeb38bce1e9a6de30e9ecada1ecfaf636574d3961cf3b9177299786214234 |
| ↓ 20,000 | 7¢ | +1pp | $328 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-20000-polymarket-0x23fb92bb72604ff35bfe591b5506de47f1bf6632ed55c388baa4843118bf69fc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 31 |
| 2026-05-25 | 28 |
| 2026-06-01 | 24 |
| 2026-06-08 | 27 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-02 · ↑ 90,000 −11pp 50→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · ↓ 55,000 +9pp 54→63¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · ↓ 55,000 +6pp 65→71¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-05 · ↓ 50,000 +6pp 54→60¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · ↓ 55,000 +5pp 75→80¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/bitcoin

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