# What will the Bitcoin realized volatility index hit by April 30 — ↑ 80

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 36% across 11 contracts — refreshed 53 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-bitcoin-realized-volatility-index-hit-april-30
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:09.059Z
Category: crypto · Topic: bitcoin
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 36% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $111K

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 55,000 | 71¢ | −2pp | $40K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-55000-polymarket-0x752fa61c93f16c4b15e85b0bd438d9c684176b0ea7b319a84c8aca34616e8a8c |
| ↓ 50,000 | 56¢ | −4pp | $15K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-50000-polymarket-0xce3c54c3e773e8b3bf73e4c12af93205b21195d03b9c386e22f274b9acfc2c56 |
| ↓ 45,000 | 41¢ | −2pp | $14K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-45000-polymarket-0x024b68f77bfc019341ee3db8f57c103334e4b9430bba4746d8c94aafd8b36fee |
| ↓ 40,000 | 31¢ | −2pp | $13K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-40000-polymarket-0x1e5564c1a2a6839cc2780a889437c63786a2c2ec5e95569b710ee659a3e8baa2 |
| ↓ 1,500 | 83¢ | −3pp | $11K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-1500-polymarket-0xcf25ccc8360f3952139fb5e3f14cb9bb0636cb53d0e30e947321ceccab7e9780 |
| ↓ 1,000 | 21¢ | −8pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-1000-polymarket-0xacb33346b59a2a3770e2391b7d1b0e77d8dcdcf840a66f5fa01d28db43c4e369 |
| ↑ 110,000 | 14¢ | ±0 | $4K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-110000-polymarket-0x63eaf41ce1f475323e2202d7dfa3b1def8b82cd166f7007c50bfbf47615c7b01 |
| ↑ 130,000 | 8¢ | −1pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-130000-polymarket-0x885a6abefad122348b4fbd503473d7fd1f9035d0438cf988a7591620f316a859 |
| ↓ 35,000 | 21¢ | −1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-35000-polymarket-0x2745c38ff0617cb345c1d2df19b4f74ea777508e07411e88eeb6ab3affcda2a2 |
| ↑ 5,500 | 7¢ | −1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-5500-polymarket-0xb75b8c777c5fd934d7fa43d4b3a3f630981b68a362a09471f9a6a6e36c38aac8 |
| ↓ 30 | 40¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-bitcoin-volatility-index-hit-in-2026-polymarket-0x335ae64f54e14b6aab5b2964fdeb78718ac0b5f030ff3e8b87d30daf9b2ab691 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 27 |
| 2026-05-25 | 26 |
| 2026-06-01 | 30 |
| 2026-06-08 | 36 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-05 · ↓ 1,500 +11pp 74→85¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · ↓ 55,000 +9pp 54→63¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · ↓ 1,500 +8pp 85→93¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-08 · ↓ 1,000 −8pp 29→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · ↓ 1,500 −7pp 93→86¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/bitcoin

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