# What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June — $77-$84

> Closed. Last odds frozen 13 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-crude-oil-cl-settle-june
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: markets · Topic: oil
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: $70-$77 at 35%
- Runner-up: $77-$84 at 27%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $70-$77 | 35¢ | +2pp | $553 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-crude-oil-cl-settle-at-in-june-70-77-polymarket-0xc6e3348bf7d47a67b7858ac0efda7dab1ee72a3e5b8f7e4ed0992509d214e809 |
| $77-$84 | 27¢ | −6pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-crude-oil-cl-settle-at-in-june-77-84-polymarket-0x684c23649305e53fcfb6180b3187c055f412af4d2a4fa8a0fa1b442dbf3d06be |
| >$84 | 18¢ | ±0 | $289 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-crude-oil-cl-settle-at-in-june-84-polymarket-0x34a4d29cc8e7227543fd3bbe7b6b2313fac9cc3b2ae9bcace5f88bd17c990b67 |
| $63-$70 | 12¢ | +2pp | $34 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-crude-oil-cl-settle-at-in-june-63-70-polymarket-0x1235c3f955563cee58d38ff4c5b7ad68bc1c267fd46ae23d37f542930cc9e6bd |
| $56-$63 | 3¢ | ±0 | $18 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-crude-oil-cl-settle-at-in-june-56-63-polymarket-0x4de2b48513b109163c89c77d860fcce3f091d8e754ba5f49a9377b052aee35d9 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $70-$77 | $77-$84 | >$84 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 6 | 13 | 74 |
| 2026-06-05 | 7 | 18 | 66 |
| 2026-06-12 | 12 | 23 | 56 |
| 2026-06-17 | 33 | 24 | 18 |
| 2026-06-18 | 35 | — | 18 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-15 · >$84 −24pp 48→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-12 · >$84 −14pp 70→56¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-15 · $70-$77 +13pp 11→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-16 · $77-$84 −8pp 38→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-14 · >$84 −8pp 56→48¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

Traders are pricing a 65% probability that West Texas Intermediate crude will settle between $77–$84 per barrel by the end of June 2026. This forecast sits near current spot levels and reflects uncertainty about near-term demand, geopolitical supply shocks, and Federal Reserve policy. The market shows low conviction for extreme moves: contracts betting on oil hitting $200, $175, or $150 trade at only 4–12 cents, while a bet on prices staying above $80 commands 50 cents. Upward pressure would likely come from production disruptions or unexpected demand strength in Asia; downward pressure from recession signals or a sharp rise in U.S. inventory. Key drivers include OPEC production cuts, U.S. inventory data releases each week, and macroeconomic indicators through June.

### Key factors

- OPEC+ compliance with production quotas and any announced supply adjustments; current cuts average ~2 million barrels per day
- Weekly U.S. EIA crude inventory reports and refineryutilization rates, released each Wednesday, which directly signal domestic demand
- Current WTI spot price approximately $75–78 (as of early May 2026) relative to the $77–84 range; mean reversion or momentum would shift probabilities
- Geopolitical events or sanctions affecting major producers (Russia, Iran, Iraq) that could constrain global supply unexpectedly
- Macroeconomic data (PMI, GDP growth forecasts, Fed rate guidance) that influence expectations for fuel consumption through Q2 2026

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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