# What will the Ethereum implied volatility Index hit by April 30 — ↓ 60

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 16% across 18 contracts — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-ethereum-implied-volatility-index-hit-april-30
Updated: 2026-06-08T03:20:13.704Z
Category: crypto · Topic: bitcoin
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 16% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $94K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 800 | 14¢ | −1pp | $40K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-800-polymarket-0x717672a48c5f2938631f6e467b9a48aedb03fa380c0198704ef5acfc91721612 |
| ↓ 1,000 | 21¢ | −3pp | $28K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-1000-polymarket-0xacb33346b59a2a3770e2391b7d1b0e77d8dcdcf840a66f5fa01d28db43c4e369 |
| ↓ 1,500 | 84¢ | +1pp | $17K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-1500-polymarket-0xcf25ccc8360f3952139fb5e3f14cb9bb0636cb53d0e30e947321ceccab7e9780 |
| ↑ 5,500 | 7¢ | +1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-5500-polymarket-0xb75b8c777c5fd934d7fa43d4b3a3f630981b68a362a09471f9a6a6e36c38aac8 |
| ↑ 3,500 | 14¢ | −2pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-3500-polymarket-0x42945ea5657d6f6e77969a06661b29d6f6295083d1ef3479b42efd90647c9dfc |
| ↑ 5,000 | 8¢ | +1pp | $953 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-5000-polymarket-0x1c4fd67ab2a67f508672a69153559911244048b79a40cbe341d12f985ba90a13 |
| ↑ 4,000 | 10¢ | ±0 | $949 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-4000-polymarket-0x9775cd557a3cdba4f0478070afa399c0805761dd9aa0e7ce4435a71fed32621c |
| ↑ 4,500 | 9¢ | +1pp | $762 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-4500-polymarket-0xa3143f9c21ecc7a9b036b4e435f48264ff72019a9e3e60dacff4e615020e7e21 |
| ↑ 7,500 | 3¢ | +1pp | $464 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-7500-polymarket-0x4fc8725f00ba06576d7c78131e4589cc93a4e133128e8ca50c8f7ba34efeaaa1 |
| ↑ 8,000 | 3¢ | +1pp | $331 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-8000-polymarket-0xac0b4316113b50e0e667918aee72fa0eb006342245a52ab6371f3732af5733c8 |
| ↑ 6,000 | 6¢ | ±0 | $312 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-6000-polymarket-0x6132cc91f7a0ad656e890b9040c159f4057f4c44359b3fb68085ec97156c918a |
| ↑ 6,500 | 5¢ | −1pp | $76 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-6500-polymarket-0x0f0499d1049385b1d53ffee6c42a1de7424e551c765211ff2cc6d66329f43a80 |
| ↑ 7,000 | 3¢ | −1pp | $61 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-7000-polymarket-0x4ee2c6081e18cc0d1f3347f6219940bda986657f1d150d17de0677ffc2104de0 |
| 25 Gwei | 13¢ | ±0 | $3 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-h-polymarket-0x9ea0030337e6416cfbd5e9a52ffb4c80575953b45a52bc513f2d7ecbe299d5f2 |
| 10 Gwei | 26¢ | ±0 | $2 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-h-polymarket-0x9cd09f37da8da9995d5bdba7b386b89e09dd5dcfed0f001f1ce5dfa7d3cfd76a |
| 15 Gwei | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-h-polymarket-0xe32a73414fb99afa84e4a56141e20dd4f3d3e1a3d1d266bb0360ac7e1c0c6063 |
| 5 Gwei | 32¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-h-polymarket-0xa6a9daa0a7576efdf9edef5095c120059c80f0ddf6a5af75e0b000a646e0d16e |
| 20 Gwei | 15¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-h-polymarket-0x85d9eadb263a3688205737d1c624458de2f9ef2cc5c1cfbb765babad6bfdcacc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 24 |
| 2026-05-25 | 20 |
| 2026-06-01 | 19 |
| 2026-06-07 | 32 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-05 · ↓ 1,500 +11pp 74→85¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · ↓ 1,500 +8pp 85→93¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · ↓ 1,500 +6pp 62→68¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · ↓ 1,500 +6pp 68→74¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · ↓ 1,000 +4pp 30→34¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This prediction asks whether Ethereum's implied volatility index will fall below 60 by April 30, 2026—a measure of expected price swings in the market. The current 21% probability reflects skepticism that volatility will compress to that level within the remaining timeframe. The primary drivers are Ethereum's price trajectory and broader market conditions: sustained price stability would reduce implied volatility, while sharp moves or uncertainty would maintain elevated levels. The resolution depends on actual volatility measurements from major derivatives exchanges as we approach the deadline. Key factors include current macro conditions, regulatory developments affecting crypto markets, and Ethereum's correlation with broader financial asset volatility.

### Key factors

- Current Ethereum implied volatility levels and trend direction relative to the 60 threshold
- Concentration of price predictions between $800–$1,500 versus upside bets at $4,000+, indicating mixed directional conviction
- Volume and activity patterns in Ethereum derivatives markets, which directly influence implied volatility calculations
- Macroeconomic and interest-rate environment shifts, historically correlated with crypto asset volatility
- Regulatory announcements or protocol developments that could trigger rapid repricing or uncertainty spikes

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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