# What will Fed Rate hit before 2027 — ↓ 3.25%

> ↓ 3.25% leads at 26%, runner-up 16% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-fed-rate-hit
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:08.797Z
Category: economy · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: ↓ 3.25% at 26%
- Runner-up: ↑ 4.25% at 16%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 3.25% | 26¢ | ±0 | $95 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027-325-polymarket-0x70d8f4e6079e98fd9a34a8f6ce00a7dd3a73a924c9d9fab0664d516f38c6f280 |
| ↑ 4.25% | 16¢ | +2pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027-425-polymarket-0x69f7294fab44b1a63575fcdff9b683d3c48a7f92a160aa274af8e2837a356e63 |
| ↑ 4.5% | 11¢ | +1pp | $332 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027-45-polymarket-0x4f330fc689830668acf7d6e6e24dcd7450dc0387855f63aecbfac64b6d458650 |
| ↓ 3.0% | 8¢ | −1pp | $289 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027-30-polymarket-0xdab002228af15d1cb3a161b3a584165eac9010d4419582c3c7d5d07d847c4256 |
| ↓ 1.5% | 6¢ | +1pp | $4 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027-15-polymarket-0xe8a621e745e7f05a582102109b45bb0fb23ce5d90848d977f75172eca041d448 |
| ↓ 1.75% | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027-175-polymarket-0x0c37533837ed4d3378494fcd9ea7043d03cc3af9443d68dfa0414984efcbaff9 |
| ↑ 4.75% | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027-475-polymarket-0x784b640e50d8db8ff5b36904fe9ecd1b3a261f4d3a0cd20adcfb7156e066ca78 |
| ↓ 2.75% | 5¢ | −1pp | $32 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027-275-polymarket-0x2bb4294142c311763ca6be27ceffcef132f5ac8281f98a62abe02f6e6a8c0107 |
| ↓ 1.25% | 5¢ | +1pp | $7 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027-125-polymarket-0x803d1018e9b81b886b3ef242de57f0d6ebee3313d0728c57eed0a146d56a3bff |
| ↓ 0.25% | 5¢ | +1pp | $3 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027-025-polymarket-0x8be4f92d8396e675e220e15c1ca5bca527bc22dba01d586e2118096c1fe8a4a3 |
| ↓ 2.0% | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027-20-polymarket-0xbfc96144ac92b856a86dfde02939ccb9ec4bd997c424aa2f68b35dce0651f99f |
| ↓ 0.5% | 5¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027-05-polymarket-0x4e15f0f425d28b87024ba9f19504e074da257e3d231d3222618a67c5c0f600ba |
| ↓ 2.25% | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027-225-polymarket-0x0bbbcca922e19937c88530c715742a6c4c5d951e3e91e2c37d3053ed6e820c81 |
| ↓ 2.5% | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027-25-polymarket-0xaa6145fb75147c5dda9bda894ed80353b14f23149b285893dd41e1edc8c0d4c2 |
| ↑ 5.0% | 4¢ | −1pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027-50-polymarket-0x0a95717208bdb1c1167877eb5b19085494f68ed9b074d8dfc7d76b549fcbe7bb |
| ↓ 1.0% | 4¢ | −1pp | $3 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027-10-polymarket-0x9ee5565296fbc49e0a2965c48a04c04a80a2cfd966d4eee60504602c63c4e02b |
| ↑ 5.5% | 4¢ | −1pp | $2 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027-55-polymarket-0x360247ba6b67009d19be741be7187abd59c5005e14be0914eb4e485f3b342c40 |
| ↓ 0% | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027-0-polymarket-0x3983cda71404c649fd93c5efb200b83835bd67feb4593deab909417c93be5b5d |
| ↓ 0.75% | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027-075-polymarket-0x58c9cde78e3a468af321f5a3d1063885a8f1e6635b0455a1ea9f211c018f5b83 |
| ↑ 5.25% | 3¢ | ±0 | $22 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027-525-polymarket-0x728246cda497e10289a7145245675e2baece6561ba784760b0914108e6e42c04 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↓ 3.25% | ↑ 4.25% | ↑ 4.5% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 35 | — | 3 |
| 2026-05-10 | 38 | 7 | — |
| 2026-05-25 | 26 | — | 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | 25 | 8 | — |
| 2026-05-31 | — | 9 | 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | 27 | 9 | — |
| 2026-06-06 | 31 | 13 | 9 |
| 2026-06-07 | — | 15 | 10 |
| 2026-06-08 | — | — | 11 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-02 · ↓ 3.25% +15pp 27→42¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · ↓ 3.25% −9pp 42→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · ↑ 4.25% +5pp 9→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · ↑ 4.5% +3pp 6→9¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract predicts whether the federal funds rate will fall below 3.25% at any point before the end of 2026. The 51% probability indicates traders view a rate cut of roughly 75–100 basis points as moderately likely over the next seven months. The current assessment reflects tension between two scenarios: persistent inflation could keep rates elevated, while economic weakening or financial stress could force the Fed to cut faster than currently anticipated. The Fed's next policy decisions through December, along with inflation data and labor market conditions reported monthly, will drive movements. The key catalyst is the Fed's June 2026 meeting, where forward guidance will signal the committee's intent on the cutting trajectory.

### Key factors

- Current federal funds rate is approximately 4.25–4.5%; reaching 3.25% requires 100+ basis points of cumulative cuts within 7 months
- Recent inflation prints and core PCE readings determine whether the Fed has room to cut without reigniting price pressures
- Employment data and jobless claims suggest labor market slack; weaker numbers increase cut probability, stronger data supports higher-for-longer rates
- The 51% lead contract dominates volume, but the 23% runner-up indicates meaningful disagreement on whether cuts will occur at this magnitude
- Fed funds futures markets and FOMC forward guidance as of early June 2026 will be the primary price-discovery mechanism

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-fed-rate-hit
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=what-fed-rate-hit
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.