# What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026 — 4.0%

> Closed. Last odds frozen 5 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-fed-rate
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: economy · Topic: fed-rate
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-12-09

## Headline

- Leader: 3.75% at 37%
- Runner-up: 4.0% at 35%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.75% | 37¢ | +3pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026-375-polymarket-0xf88da08f18b2026d986d67508141ec7c13614d87a6ff0f5315edfce4df643165 |
| 4.0% | 35¢ | +5pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026-40-polymarket-0xb6abfbc465b88c6085503b3280872545c99c43fc979674bb47b9df1f7c170fd3 |
| 4.25% | 13¢ | +1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026-425-polymarket-0x16dd5e4c4bfa3f3095c3ff0def4bed556eba411e3cdbf7b463b3b9a74c1d93a4 |
| 3.5% | 8¢ | −1pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026-35-polymarket-0xfdf784c55879c70a90eab563dde386b6c5965e41be15fa74424f1db623282312 |
| ≥ 4.5% | 4¢ | ±0 | $917 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026-45-polymarket-0x3d20f26deb9b9cc7e24e5e06c10234a722d93bac095ce1105c59b44b503078d7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 3.75% | 4.0% | 4.25% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 46 | 25 | 9 |
| 2026-06-10 | 33 | 34 | 16 |
| 2026-06-17 | 38 | 37 | 12 |
| 2026-06-18 | — | — | 13 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-17 · 4.0% +5pp 32→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-17 · 3.75% +3pp 35→38¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market assigns a 54% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at 4.0% through the end of 2026. The probability reflects expectations about inflation trends, economic growth, and Fed policy communications over the next seven months. Markets currently price in a June rate hold as highly likely (94% probability), with only a 46% chance of any cuts occurring before 2027. The main drivers of this probability are incoming inflation data and employment reports, which will shape Fed decisions at each meeting. The immediate catalyst is the June 2026 FOMC meeting, where markets overwhelmingly expect no change. Subsequent quarterly inflation readings and labor market indicators through year-end will determine whether the Fed adjusts from the 4.0% level.

### Key factors

- June 2026 FOMC meeting is priced at 94% probability of rate maintenance, establishing the baseline for year-end outcomes
- Inflation trajectory matters significantly—any sustained above-target inflation would support rates staying at 4.0% rather than declining
- The 46% market probability of any cuts before 2027 suggests most participants expect rates to hold steady through the end of 2026
- Only 13% probability assigned to cuts exceeding 25bps in 2026, indicating markets do not expect aggressive rate-cutting cycles
- Economic data releases between now and December—particularly CPI, PCE, and employment reports—will be the primary drivers of probability shifts

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=what-fed-rate
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

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