# What will Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) hit in April 2026 — ↑ $650

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 26% across 8 contracts — refreshed 11 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-invesco-qqq-trust-qqq-hit-april
Updated: 2026-05-05T14:35:28.154Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 26% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 20% / Polymarket 27% — 7pp spread
- 24h volume: $66K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 45,000 | 27¢ | −2pp | $19K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-45000-polymarket-0x024b68f77bfc019341ee3db8f57c103334e4b9430bba4746d8c94aafd8b36fee |
| ↓ 35,000 | 13¢ | ±0 | $17K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-35000-polymarket-0x2745c38ff0617cb345c1d2df19b4f74ea777508e07411e88eeb6ab3affcda2a2 |
| ↓ 55,000 | 45¢ | −1pp | $9K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-55000-polymarket-0x752fa61c93f16c4b15e85b0bd438d9c684176b0ea7b319a84c8aca34616e8a8c |
| ↓ 40,000 | 19¢ | −1pp | $8K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-40000-polymarket-0x1e5564c1a2a6839cc2780a889437c63786a2c2ec5e95569b710ee659a3e8baa2 |
| ↓ 1,500 | 44¢ | +2pp | $5K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-1500-polymarket-0xcf25ccc8360f3952139fb5e3f14cb9bb0636cb53d0e30e947321ceccab7e9780 |
| ↑ 200,000 | 5¢ | −8pp | $5K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-200000-polymarket-0xac32e73aa9e0dae801d88d4f81efd2ef3fa0f04b815f3a0e74426f0762e668cd |
| ↓ 50,000 | 35¢ | −4pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-50000-polymarket-0xce3c54c3e773e8b3bf73e4c12af93205b21195d03b9c386e22f274b9acfc2c56 |
| Trust | 20¢ | +3pp | $344 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-jeff-probst-say-during-survivor-season-5-kalshi-kxsurvivormention-26may06-trus |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 42 |
| 2026-04-21 | 35 |
| 2026-04-28 | 36 |
| 2026-05-03 | 34 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · ↓ 45,000 −9pp 39→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · ↑ 200,000 −8pp 12→4¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · ↓ 40,000 −7pp 31→24¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · ↑ 200,000 +7pp 5→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · ↓ 45,000 +6pp 33→39¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-invesco-qqq-trust-qqq-hit-april
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=what-invesco-qqq-trust-qqq-hit-april

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.