# What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31

> Oil Sanction Relief leads at 24%, runner-up 16% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 39 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-iranian-demands-trump-agree-to-may-31
Updated: 2026-05-28T19:20:08.419Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: Oil Sanction Relief at 24%
- Runner-up: Unfreeze Iranian Assets at 16%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $151K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oil Sanction Relief | 24¢ | −10pp | $85K | polymarket | /markets/what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-may-31-polymarket-0xa37173a88dc5622e1c42e9f8f5a9d20d70b9b99e52cb76e64fb0ad95503fcaef |
| Unfreeze Iranian Assets | 16¢ | −8pp | $66K | polymarket | /markets/what-iranian-demands-will-trump-agree-to-by-may-31-polymarket-0x8374c773aa911e00a8d5c02e0130d57d18a9b5035b26e50f0e48ef1b74dd5c75 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Oil Sanction Relief | Unfreeze Iranian Assets |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | 30 | 24 |
| 2026-05-25 | 32 | 31 |
| 2026-05-26 | 33 | 27 |
| 2026-05-27 | 22 | 19 |
| 2026-05-28 | 12 | 11 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-27 · Oil Sanction Relief −11pp 33→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · Oil Sanction Relief −10pp 22→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · Unfreeze Iranian Assets −8pp 27→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · Unfreeze Iranian Assets −8pp 19→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-25 · Unfreeze Iranian Assets +7pp 24→31¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract estimates the likelihood that Trump will concede to at least one Iranian demand by May 31, 2026—just six days away. The 25% probability reflects divided sentiment across four possible outcomes, with unfreezing assets viewed as the most probable demand Trump might accept. The near-term timeframe and narrow window for negotiation suggest market participants view a deal as unlikely but non-trivial. The outcome depends on whether active U.S.-Iran talks are occurring and whether Trump prioritizes sanctions relief or asset access as negotiating leverage in the final week of May. The resolution will occur automatically when the deadline passes, making this a pure binary-like contract on near-term diplomatic movement.

### Key factors

- No public announcement of active Trump-Iran negotiations has been reported as of late May 2026, suggesting low baseline probability for agreement in six days
- The contract's structure shows unfreezing assets (26¢) and oil sanctions relief (24¢) are favored over uranium enrichment rights (3¢) and strait transit fees (3¢), indicating market expectation that financial/economic demands are more negotiable than security concessions
- Trump's historical negotiating pattern and current relationship with Iran would need to shift dramatically within one week to produce an agreement
- The spread between the top two outcomes (26¢ to 24¢) indicates near-parity, suggesting genuine uncertainty rather than consensus that a deal is impossible
- Any Iranian demand concession would likely require either a crisis event forcing negotiation or pre-existing back-channel talks not yet public

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

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