# What will iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in April 2026 — ↓ $118

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 29% across 14 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-ishares-msci-south-korea-etf-ewy-hit-april
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:35:25.284Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 29% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 37% / Polymarket 23% — 14pp spread
- 24h volume: $51K

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 45,000 | 30¢ | −2pp | $29K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-45000-polymarket-0x024b68f77bfc019341ee3db8f57c103334e4b9430bba4746d8c94aafd8b36fee |
| ↓ 40,000 | 22¢ | −1pp | $17K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-40000-polymarket-0x1e5564c1a2a6839cc2780a889437c63786a2c2ec5e95569b710ee659a3e8baa2 |
| TOR wins 4-3 | 27¢ | +10pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-the-series-outcome-in-the-toronto-vs-kalshi-kxnbaseriesscore-26torcler1-tor43 |
| ↓ 1,500 | 48¢ | +2pp | $360 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-1500-polymarket-0xcf25ccc8360f3952139fb5e3f14cb9bb0636cb53d0e30e947321ceccab7e9780 |
| ↑ 200,000 | 4¢ | −8pp | $299 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-200000-polymarket-0xac32e73aa9e0dae801d88d4f81efd2ef3fa0f04b815f3a0e74426f0762e668cd |
| South Carolina | 71¢ | +7pp | $239 | kalshi | /markets/what-states-will-redistrict-before-the-2026-congre-kalshi-kxredistricting-26-sc |
| Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? | 7¢ | −1pp | $67 | polymarket | /markets/will-north-and-south-korea-engage-in-direct-talks-polymarket-0x2fd0c0a6ab43aea7cb0b433c9555d5515d8c5ecfb825a11c3b47ef91b92694e5 |
| Lee Jae Myung | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-lee-jae-myung-leave-president-of-south-korea-kalshi-kxleadersout-27jan01-ljmkor |
| South Korea | 38¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-donald-trump-visit-in-2026-so-polymarket-0x3ebd55f194a3645e64dceb8f78bf6b9682c24f778b8a20e0ec67e1ddd9bdcf58 |
| South Korea | 24¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-countries-will-trump-make-new-trade-deals-wi-polymarket-0xcc9b5eb0fb5b7fa763bee8c0d37cb4559a8cc0336dce6dc34b54d072720c807d |
| South Carolina | 28¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-state-will-be-first-in-the-democratic-preside-kalshi-kxfirstprimaryd-28-sc |
| South Korea | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-recognize-palestine-south-korea-kalshi-kxrecogpalestine-27-sk |
| Ending Jun 4, 2029 | 85¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-south-korean-president-lee-jae-myung-serve-th-kalshi-kxfulltermskpres-29 |
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/will-north-korea-invade-south-korea-before-2027-polymarket-0x84dc47b1dd9cd99a9217b92a95690729334b647650bb6bf676bb31c3db0d7f79 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 37 |
| 2026-04-19 | 24 |
| 2026-04-26 | 24 |
| 2026-05-03 | 34 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · South Carolina +24pp 38→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · South Carolina +14pp 24→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? −12pp 21→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? −12pp 19→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? +11pp 10→21¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-ishares-msci-south-korea-etf-ewy-hit-april
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=what-ishares-msci-south-korea-etf-ewy-hit-april

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.