# What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on April 30 — 564 - 567k

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 54% across 14 contracts — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-median-home-value-dc-metro-area-april-30
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:50:27.816Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 54% (liquidity-weighted across 14 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 62% / Polymarket 26% — 36pp spread
- 24h volume: $19K

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 1,000 | 19¢ | +1pp | $7K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-1000-polymarket-0xacb33346b59a2a3770e2391b7d1b0e77d8dcdcf840a66f5fa01d28db43c4e369 |
| TOR wins 4-3 | 27¢ | +10pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-the-series-outcome-in-the-toronto-vs-kalshi-kxnbaseriesscore-26torcler1-tor43 |
| Virginia | 60¢ | −4pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/what-states-will-redistrict-before-the-2026-congre-kalshi-kxredistricting-26-vir |
| Dividend | 32¢ | −4pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-mcdonalds-corporation-say-during-their-n-kalshi-kxearningsmentionmcd-26may07-divi |
| CLE wins 4-3 | 73¢ | +37pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-be-the-series-outcome-in-the-toronto-vs-kalshi-kxnbaseriesscore-26torcler1-cle43 |
| NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?: Yes | 23¢ | −1pp | $648 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-unemployment-rate-exceeds-10-mo-kalshi-kxcitrini-28jul01 |
| ↓ 1,500 | 48¢ | +2pp | $360 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-1500-polymarket-0xcf25ccc8360f3952139fb5e3f14cb9bb0636cb53d0e30e947321ceccab7e9780 |
| ↑ 5,500 | 10¢ | −2pp | $100 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-5500-polymarket-0xb75b8c777c5fd934d7fa43d4b3a3f630981b68a362a09471f9a6a6e36c38aac8 |
| Home Sharing | 47¢ | −4pp | $46 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-airbnb-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionabnb-26may07-home |
| Above 3.4% | 74¢ | −12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-median-be-in-the-feds-jun-17-2026-do-kalshi-kxdotplot-26jun-3.4 |
| Above 3.5% | 63¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-median-be-in-the-feds-jun-17-2026-do-kalshi-kxdotplot-26jun-3.5 |
| Above 3.0% | 95¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-median-be-in-the-feds-jun-17-2026-do-kalshi-kxdotplot-26jun-3.0 |
| Above 3.2% | 93¢ | −12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-median-be-in-the-feds-jun-17-2026-do-kalshi-kxdotplot-26jun-3.2 |
| Above 3.3% | 93¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-median-be-in-the-feds-jun-17-2026-do-kalshi-kxdotplot-26jun-3.3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 46 |
| 2026-04-19 | 54 |
| 2026-04-26 | 45 |
| 2026-05-03 | 46 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · CLE wins 4-3 +37pp 34→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-29 · ↑ 5,500 −17pp 29→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · ↑ 5,500 +16pp 13→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-26 · CLE wins 4-3 +14pp 18→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Home Sharing −13pp 61→48¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-median-home-value-dc-metro-area-april-30
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=what-median-home-value-dc-metro-area-april-30

## License

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