# What will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at in December — $30,500-$33,000

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 23% across 8 contracts — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-nasdaq-100-ndx-close-december
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:09.880Z
Category: markets
Status: active
Closes: 2030-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 26% / Polymarket 20% — 6pp spread
- 24h volume: $20K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 100,000 | 19¢ | ±0 | $16K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-100000-polymarket-0xdaa4866bae18be58c5a79d2aeeffd035ec78f1bb49dbd88f72993997778a990f |
| ↑ 100 | 33¢ | −1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-hyperliquid-hit-in-2026-100-polymarket-0xeae133a71045c94ab57717d3f4aab62758e2a915a27f9606e383024975264467 |
| ↓ 100 | 25¢ | −14pp | $980 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-zcash-hit-in-2026-100-polymarket-0xaea52eb0558e3be166d61a297c8680b9d5cdd083df60335474383f38cd48cad5 |
| More than $100 | 4¢ | +1pp | $669 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-price-of-gta-vi-be-more-than-100-kalshi-kxgtaprice-100 |
| 33,000.01 or above | 23¢ | +1pp | $522 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nasdaq-100-be-above-33000-at-the-end-of-d-kalshi-kxnasdaq100y-26dec31h1600-t33000 |
| $100-$115 | 3¢ | ±0 | $241 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-silver-si-settle-at-in-june-100-115-polymarket-0xdf88e78e59e5d854aeb115c92516972420d25815540d8b1418f03db92f0b3a5b |
| 25,249.86 or above | 75¢ | +2pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nasdaq-100-be-above-2524985-at-the-end-of-kalshi-kxnasdaq100pos-26dec31h1600-t25249.85 |
| 28,500 to 28,999.99 | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-nasdaq-100-be-between-28500-and-2899999-a-kalshi-kxnasdaq100y-26dec31h1600-b28750 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 29 |
| 2026-05-25 | 30 |
| 2026-06-01 | 31 |
| 2026-06-08 | 47 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-05 · ↓ 100 +20pp 18→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · ↓ 100 −14pp 44→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · ↑ 100 −9pp 55→46¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · ↑ 100 −6pp 41→35¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · ↓ 100 +6pp 38→44¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=what-nasdaq-100-ndx-close-december

## License

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