# What will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) hit by end of December — ↓ $21,000

> ↓ 1,500 leads at 83%, runner-up 71% across 17 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 53 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-nasdaq-100-ndx-hit-december
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:07.850Z
Category: markets
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: ↓ 1,500 at 83%
- Runner-up: ↓ 55,000 at 71%
- Outcomes: 17 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $137K

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 1,500 | 83¢ | −3pp | $11K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-1500-polymarket-0xcf25ccc8360f3952139fb5e3f14cb9bb0636cb53d0e30e947321ceccab7e9780 |
| ↓ 55,000 | 71¢ | −2pp | $40K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-55000-polymarket-0x752fa61c93f16c4b15e85b0bd438d9c684176b0ea7b319a84c8aca34616e8a8c |
| ↓ 50,000 | 56¢ | −4pp | $15K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-50000-polymarket-0xce3c54c3e773e8b3bf73e4c12af93205b21195d03b9c386e22f274b9acfc2c56 |
| ↓ 45,000 | 41¢ | −2pp | $14K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-45000-polymarket-0x024b68f77bfc019341ee3db8f57c103334e4b9430bba4746d8c94aafd8b36fee |
| ↑ 100 | 33¢ | −1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-hyperliquid-hit-in-2026-100-polymarket-0xeae133a71045c94ab57717d3f4aab62758e2a915a27f9606e383024975264467 |
| ↓ 40,000 | 31¢ | −2pp | $13K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-40000-polymarket-0x1e5564c1a2a6839cc2780a889437c63786a2c2ec5e95569b710ee659a3e8baa2 |
| ↓ 100 | 25¢ | −14pp | $980 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-zcash-hit-in-2026-100-polymarket-0xaea52eb0558e3be166d61a297c8680b9d5cdd083df60335474383f38cd48cad5 |
| ↓ 1,000 | 21¢ | −8pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-1000-polymarket-0xacb33346b59a2a3770e2391b7d1b0e77d8dcdcf840a66f5fa01d28db43c4e369 |
| ↓ 35,000 | 21¢ | −1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-35000-polymarket-0x2745c38ff0617cb345c1d2df19b4f74ea777508e07411e88eeb6ab3affcda2a2 |
| ↑ 1000 | 21¢ | ±0 | $114 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bnb-hit-in-2026-1000-polymarket-0xa0ae2e664b35652b182fc8b9dd6f69b13c3e9b7688baf922b762367f48c3e29e |
| ↑ 100,000 | 19¢ | ±0 | $16K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-100000-polymarket-0xdaa4866bae18be58c5a79d2aeeffd035ec78f1bb49dbd88f72993997778a990f |
| ↑ 1000 | 19¢ | +3pp | $632 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-zcash-hit-in-2026-1000-polymarket-0xad71763772067a2954bd94f09116c86709f96fd46af664f0237d155dbb2a645f |
| ↑ 1100 | 19¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bnb-hit-in-2026-1100-polymarket-0xe3eb7d5075905e913341a7cc3edb1d39c7a52963f5c51fb6e34139e5cb735f8e |
| ↑ 110,000 | 14¢ | ±0 | $4K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-110000-polymarket-0x63eaf41ce1f475323e2202d7dfa3b1def8b82cd166f7007c50bfbf47615c7b01 |
| ↑ 1100 | 11¢ | +3pp | $6K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-zcash-hit-in-2026-1100-polymarket-0x280f534844278583edf4371c96e28dfe4c03bd93ba3cbfce9175ee3821dfa12f |
| ↑ 130,000 | 8¢ | −1pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-130000-polymarket-0x885a6abefad122348b4fbd503473d7fd1f9035d0438cf988a7591620f316a859 |
| ↑ 5,500 | 7¢ | −1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-5500-polymarket-0xb75b8c777c5fd934d7fa43d4b3a3f630981b68a362a09471f9a6a6e36c38aac8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↓ 1,500 | ↓ 55,000 | ↓ 50,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | — | 45 | — |
| 2026-05-10 | 40 | 44 | 35 |
| 2026-05-24 | 49 | 50 | 41 |
| 2026-05-25 | — | 49 | 39 |
| 2026-06-01 | 58 | 54 | 43 |
| 2026-06-07 | 86 | 75 | 59 |
| 2026-06-08 | 83 | 73 | — |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-05 · ↓ 100 +20pp 18→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · ↓ 100 −14pp 44→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-05 · ↓ 1,500 +11pp 74→85¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-05 · ↑ 1000 −10pp 30→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · ↓ 55,000 +9pp 54→63¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates a 27% chance the Nasdaq 100 index will fall below $21,000 by December 31, 2026. The probability reflects current market positioning and recent volatility, with the index trading significantly above this threshold as of May 2026. The main drivers of this prediction are macroeconomic conditions—particularly Federal Reserve policy, inflation data, and corporate earnings growth—which determine whether large-cap tech and growth stocks maintain their valuations or face a substantial correction. The most significant catalyst will be the quarterly earnings reports throughout 2026 and any major shifts in interest rate expectations, which directly influence discount rates for high-growth companies that dominate the Nasdaq 100. Economic data releases, especially employment reports and inflation indicators, will provide critical signals about recession risk and monetary policy direction. Resolution depends entirely on where the index closes on December 31, 2026.

### Key factors

- Federal Reserve interest rate policy and forward guidance; markets price in expectations of rate cuts or hikes that materially affect equity valuations
- Aggregate earnings growth for Nasdaq 100 components; earnings revisions upward or downward substantially move index valuations
- Recession probability; historical data shows the Nasdaq 100 typically declines 20-40% during U.S. recessions
- Geopolitical or systemic financial events between now and year-end that could trigger broad risk-off sentiment
- Valuations relative to historical averages; current price-to-earnings ratios relative to long-term trends influence downside risk assessment

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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