# What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in April 2026 — ↑ $3.00

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 28% across 17 contracts — refreshed 48 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-natural-gas-ng-hit-april
Updated: 2026-06-13T11:20:49.618Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 28% (liquidity-weighted across 17 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (17 contracts)
- 24h volume: $50K

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 45,000 | 42¢ | +3pp | $15K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-45000-polymarket-0x024b68f77bfc019341ee3db8f57c103334e4b9430bba4746d8c94aafd8b36fee |
| ↑ 90,000 | 27¢ | +1pp | $10K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-90000-polymarket-0xbb379a14cd03f68c35c279ddbd928a6326f4fd2e21827f8cdaaf59715d6df50e |
| ↑ 130,000 | 6¢ | −1pp | $6K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-130000-polymarket-0x885a6abefad122348b4fbd503473d7fd1f9035d0438cf988a7591620f316a859 |
| ↓ 50,000 | 55¢ | −1pp | $5K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-50000-polymarket-0xce3c54c3e773e8b3bf73e4c12af93205b21195d03b9c386e22f274b9acfc2c56 |
| ↓ 40,000 | 31¢ | ±0 | $3K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-40000-polymarket-0x1e5564c1a2a6839cc2780a889437c63786a2c2ec5e95569b710ee659a3e8baa2 |
| ↓ 55,000 | 70¢ | −2pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-55000-polymarket-0x752fa61c93f16c4b15e85b0bd438d9c684176b0ea7b319a84c8aca34616e8a8c |
| ↓ 35,000 | 21¢ | −2pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-35000-polymarket-0x2745c38ff0617cb345c1d2df19b4f74ea777508e07411e88eeb6ab3affcda2a2 |
| ↓ 1,000 | 27¢ | +1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-1000-polymarket-0xacb33346b59a2a3770e2391b7d1b0e77d8dcdcf840a66f5fa01d28db43c4e369 |
| ↑ 110,000 | 12¢ | ±0 | $2K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-110000-polymarket-0x63eaf41ce1f475323e2202d7dfa3b1def8b82cd166f7007c50bfbf47615c7b01 |
| ↑ 5,500 | 7¢ | ±0 | $2K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-5500-polymarket-0xb75b8c777c5fd934d7fa43d4b3a3f630981b68a362a09471f9a6a6e36c38aac8 |
| ↓ 1,500 | 84¢ | −1pp | $150 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-1500-polymarket-0xcf25ccc8360f3952139fb5e3f14cb9bb0636cb53d0e30e947321ceccab7e9780 |
| 15 Gwei | 10¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-h-polymarket-0xe32a73414fb99afa84e4a56141e20dd4f3d3e1a3d1d266bb0360ac7e1c0c6063 |
| 25 Gwei | 10¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-h-polymarket-0x9ea0030337e6416cfbd5e9a52ffb4c80575953b45a52bc513f2d7ecbe299d5f2 |
| 40 Gwei | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-h-polymarket-0xb5d84b0d831b64feb65dbd8f8b6ff92ac739cfdd13676770d2b13087f1a0d386 |
| 5 Gwei | 18¢ | +9pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-h-polymarket-0xa6a9daa0a7576efdf9edef5095c120059c80f0ddf6a5af75e0b000a646e0d16e |
| 10 Gwei | 37¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-h-polymarket-0x9cd09f37da8da9995d5bdba7b386b89e09dd5dcfed0f001f1ce5dfa7d3cfd76a |
| 20 Gwei | 11¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-h-polymarket-0x85d9eadb263a3688205737d1c624458de2f9ef2cc5c1cfbb765babad6bfdcacc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 33 |
| 2026-05-30 | 32 |
| 2026-06-06 | 36 |
| 2026-06-13 | 37 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-12 · 10 Gwei +24pp 10→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-10 · 5 Gwei −16pp 31→15¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-09 · 25 Gwei −9pp 16→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-12 · 5 Gwei +9pp 9→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-10 · 10 Gwei −9pp 21→12¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

Natural gas prices have a 26% probability of reaching $3.00 or higher in April 2026, based on aggregated market forecasts. This reflects traders' expectations that prices will remain below this level during that month. Natural gas prices are primarily driven by seasonal demand patterns (heating in winter months creates upward pressure, while summer typically sees lower demand) and supply dynamics, including production levels and storage capacity. The key driver would be April's actual weather conditions and inventory data leading into the month—unseasonably cold temperatures could boost demand and push prices higher, while mild weather would exert downward pressure. Traders are currently pricing in a below-30% chance of this threshold being met, suggesting market consensus expects either sustained lower prices or typical spring seasonality.

### Key factors

- April is historically a shoulder season with declining heating demand compared to winter months, creating seasonal headwinds for price appreciation
- Current natural gas storage levels relative to the five-year average will influence supply tightness and price floor expectations
- Historical volatility in natural gas prices (often 30-50% swings month-to-month) means the $3.00 threshold represents roughly 40-60% above recent price levels
- Weather forecasts and temperature anomalies in March-April are the primary short-term catalyst for intramonth price movement
- Production growth or constraints from major producing regions (Permian, Haynesville) directly affect supply available during the resolution period

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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