# What will Natural Gas (NG) hit in May 2026 — ↑ $3.20

> ↑ $3.40 leads at 21%, runner-up 4% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-natural-gas-ng-hit-may
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:08.507Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: ↑ $3.40 at 21%
- Runner-up: ↓ $2.90 at 4%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $3.40 | 21¢ | +1pp | $937 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-natural-gas-ng-hit-in-may-2026-340-polymarket-0x44ef43c4a2239e78b9893852cdcb9e18a4f9c966d026da72b3ccfa1f6647b235 |
| ↓ $2.90 | 4¢ | +6pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-natural-gas-ng-hit-in-may-2026-290-polymarket-0xd20e6e6a67bf20edd1b9d2aaf990e5532afe977c32db1b500b2b183506d210db |
| ↓ $2.80 | 3¢ | −3pp | $239 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-natural-gas-ng-hit-in-may-2026-280-polymarket-0x34c7a1e2412ee74e984505b8e21379cfa112b9eec0a9108d0cf1f1a4c4ed4a8f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↑ $3.40 | ↓ $2.90 | ↓ $2.80 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 15 | — | 26 |
| 2026-05-19 | 22 | 31 | 20 |
| 2026-05-21 | 16 | 12 | 9 |
| 2026-05-27 | 2 | 35 | 8 |
| 2026-05-28 | — | — | 5 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-22 · ↓ $2.90 +29pp 12→41¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · ↓ $2.90 −19pp 48→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · ↓ $2.90 +18pp 46→64¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-25 · ↓ $2.90 −16pp 64→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · ↑ $3.40 −13pp 17→4¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 61% chance that natural gas will trade at or above $3.20 during May 2026. This outcome has concentrated significantly more trading volume ($4,102 in 24 hours) than alternative outcomes, suggesting traders view this price level as the most likely scenario. The contract structure implies markets are assessing both upside moves toward $3.40 and downside risks toward $2.60–$2.80. Natural gas prices typically respond to seasonal demand shifts, storage inventory levels reported weekly by the EIA, weather forecasts affecting heating and cooling demand, and global LNG export dynamics. Resolution depends on actual spot prices hitting the specified thresholds during May's trading month. The substantial gap between the leading contract (61¢) and the runner-up (25¢) indicates reasonable conviction, though significant disagreement persists about whether prices will remain elevated or decline.

### Key factors

- EIA weekly natural gas storage reports through May show either inventory builds (bearish for price floor support) or draws (supporting higher prices)
- Weather forecasts and actual temperatures during May affect near-term demand; unseasonably warm weather pressures prices downward
- Liquefied natural gas export capacity utilization and global LNG spot prices influence US Henry Hub pricing through arbitrage dynamics
- Trading volume concentration at $3.20 threshold versus lower volumes at $2.60–$2.80 suggests market participants see current price levels as less likely than continuation near $3.20

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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