# What will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit in May 2026 — ↓ $80

> ↓ $85 leads at 31%, runner-up 4% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-netflix-inc-nflx-hit-may
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:11.855Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: ↓ $85 at 31%
- Runner-up: ↑ $95 at 4%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ $85 | 31¢ | −4pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-netflix-inc-nflx-hit-in-may-2026-85-polymarket-0x1e618113d1bb250265f7ace02b353ccf8f0fa601aec6906420b80d76b770113b |
| ↑ $95 | 4¢ | −1pp | $123 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-netflix-inc-nflx-hit-in-may-2026-95-polymarket-0x54cc3536736e8887ad11ea31783d78cf4596e467771df585301c67899a159f5d |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↓ $85 | ↑ $95 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 40 | 25 |
| 2026-05-21 | 28 | 16 |
| 2026-05-27 | 28 | 5 |
| 2026-05-28 | 24 | — |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-21 · ↓ $85 −15pp 43→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-25 · ↑ $95 −8pp 16→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-23 · ↓ $85 +7pp 27→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-23 · ↑ $95 −6pp 16→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · ↑ $95 +6pp 10→16¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market measures the probability that Netflix's stock will trade at or below $80 at some point during May 2026. Currently priced at 36%, the contract reflects moderate skepticism that the stock will decline to this level, with traders appearing more confident in a floor near $85 or upside movement toward $95–$100. The probability is shaped by Netflix's recent stock performance, broader market conditions, and investor sentiment around the company's growth trajectory. Key drivers include quarterly earnings reports, subscriber growth announcements, and macroeconomic factors affecting tech valuations. Since we are already in mid-May 2026, the contract's resolution depends on whether the stock reaches $80 before the month closes, making any significant market movements or company news in the coming days highly relevant to the outcome.

### Key factors

- Netflix's current stock price relative to $80 and proximity to month-end; any intraday moves below $80 would resolve the contract
- Timing of any May earnings call, guidance revision, or subscriber data announcement that could trigger volatility
- Broader tech sector performance and market appetite for mega-cap growth stocks during the final weeks of May
- Historical volatility of NFLX and the distance between current price and the $80 strike level
- Competitive or regulatory developments (content spend, password-sharing enforcement, ad-tier growth) that move sentiment

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=what-netflix-inc-nflx-hit-may

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