# What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in May 2026 — ↑ $240

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 3% across 1 contract — refreshed 3 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-nvidia-nvda-hit-may
Updated: 2026-05-28T17:20:13.347Z
Category: general · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ $192 | 3¢ | −1pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-nvidia-nvda-hit-in-may-2026-192-polymarket-0x1cc9ecbc8458e31c1d46b1eef10dee917985c96dfc60b90d62ea6604acae7316 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 21 |
| 2026-05-21 | 12 |
| 2026-05-28 | 5 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-21 · ↓ $192 −4pp 16→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · ↓ $192 −3pp 12→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-25 · ↓ $192 −3pp 7→4¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market is asking whether NVIDIA's stock price will reach $240 or higher at some point in May 2026. Currently trading at 41%, the probability reflects uncertainty about near-term semiconductor demand, earnings momentum, and macroeconomic conditions. The gap between the leading outcome ($240) and runner-up ($248) suggests modest disagreement on upside potential—traders are pricing in meaningful uncertainty about whether the stock reaches even moderate gains from current levels. Downside risk to $192 is priced at 20%, indicating some hedging against a broader market correction or tech sector slowdown. The most significant driver would be NVIDIA's first-quarter earnings report and forward guidance in late April/early May 2026, which typically moves AI and semiconductor stocks substantially. Secondary factors include broader semiconductor industry trends, competition dynamics, and macro sentiment shifts.

### Key factors

- NVIDIA's Q1 2026 earnings release and data center guidance could shift probabilities sharply based on AI demand signals and margin expectations
- The $240 target represents roughly 8-12% upside from typical late-May price ranges, suggesting markets are pricing moderate conviction about continued strength
- Polymarket volume concentration ($7,389 in 24h for $240 contract) indicates active trading but relatively modest liquidity compared to major exchanges
- The downside contract at $192 (20% probability) reflects tail risk pricing—a 20%+ drawdown scenario—suggesting some traders are hedging against semiconductor cyclicality or broader tech correction
- Market structure with 7 discrete outcomes creates winner-take-all dynamics, potentially exaggerating probabilities for mid-range strikes while compressing tails

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=what-nvidia-nvda-hit-may
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

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