# What will Opendoor (OPEN) hit in April 2026 — ↓ $4

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-opendoor-open-hit-april
Updated: 2026-06-18T05:20:21.689Z
Category: general
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 13 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $40K

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 1,000 | 25¢ | +1pp | $10K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-1000-polymarket-0xacb33346b59a2a3770e2391b7d1b0e77d8dcdcf840a66f5fa01d28db43c4e369 |
| ↓ 45,000 | 40¢ | ±0 | $7K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-45000-polymarket-0x024b68f77bfc019341ee3db8f57c103334e4b9430bba4746d8c94aafd8b36fee |
| ↓ 55,000 | 72¢ | +3pp | $6K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-55000-polymarket-0x752fa61c93f16c4b15e85b0bd438d9c684176b0ea7b319a84c8aca34616e8a8c |
| ↓ 50,000 | 53¢ | +1pp | $5K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-50000-polymarket-0xce3c54c3e773e8b3bf73e4c12af93205b21195d03b9c386e22f274b9acfc2c56 |
| ↑ 90,000 | 28¢ | −5pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-90000-polymarket-0xbb379a14cd03f68c35c279ddbd928a6326f4fd2e21827f8cdaaf59715d6df50e |
| ↓ 40,000 | 30¢ | +1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-40000-polymarket-0x1e5564c1a2a6839cc2780a889437c63786a2c2ec5e95569b710ee659a3e8baa2 |
| ↓ 35,000 | 18¢ | −1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-35000-polymarket-0x2745c38ff0617cb345c1d2df19b4f74ea777508e07411e88eeb6ab3affcda2a2 |
| Bitcoin hits $1m | 50¢ | +1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-bitcoin-hits-1m-polymarket-0xbb57ccf5853a85487bc3d83d04d669310d28c6c810758953b9d9b91d1aee89d2 |
| ↓ 1,500 | 72¢ | +2pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-1500-polymarket-0xcf25ccc8360f3952139fb5e3f14cb9bb0636cb53d0e30e947321ceccab7e9780 |
| ↑ 130,000 | 5¢ | −1pp | $666 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-130000-polymarket-0x885a6abefad122348b4fbd503473d7fd1f9035d0438cf988a7591620f316a859 |
| ↑ 110,000 | 13¢ | ±0 | $448 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-110000-polymarket-0x63eaf41ce1f475323e2202d7dfa3b1def8b82cd166f7007c50bfbf47615c7b01 |
| ↑ 160,000 | 4¢ | +1pp | $353 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-160000-polymarket-0x472c9035786b390c08e674fc60bddda488957e1b8aecad3f5480cc531a0754b0 |
| ↑ 5,500 | 6¢ | +1pp | $160 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-5500-polymarket-0xb75b8c777c5fd934d7fa43d4b3a3f630981b68a362a09471f9a6a6e36c38aac8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 38 |
| 2026-06-05 | 37 |
| 2026-06-12 | 36 |
| 2026-06-18 | 37 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-15 · ↓ 1,500 −11pp 81→70¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-15 · ↑ 90,000 +5pp 28→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-16 · ↑ 90,000 −5pp 33→28¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-12 · ↓ 45,000 −3pp 44→41¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-15 · ↓ 55,000 −3pp 68→65¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market measures the probability that Opendoor (OPEN) stock closes below $4 in April 2026, currently assessed at 31%. The prediction reflects investor expectations about the real estate technology company's valuation over the next ten months. The probability is influenced by broader housing market conditions, Opendoor's quarterly earnings performance, and macroeconomic factors affecting fintech and proptech valuations. Key drivers include mortgage rate trends, housing inventory levels, and the company's ability to maintain market share in its competitive segment. Resolution will depend on OPEN's actual closing price during April 2026, making upcoming earnings reports and housing data releases between now and then significant catalysts that could shift market expectations.

### Key factors

- Opendoor's quarterly earnings reports and guidance through Q1 2026 will provide actual performance data against analyst expectations
- Mortgage rate movements and housing demand data releases could significantly impact the real estate technology sector valuation
- OPEN's current stock price relative to $4 and its historical volatility establish a baseline for assessing downside probability
- Competitive positioning within the proptech sector and market share retention will influence investor confidence in the company's trajectory
- Macroeconomic conditions including inflation data and Federal Reserve policy signals through early 2026 will affect growth stock valuations broadly

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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