# What will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit in May 2026 — ↓ $126

> ↑ $150 leads at 12%, runner-up 7% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 19 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-palantir-technologies-inc-pltr-hit-may
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:10.320Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: ↑ $150 at 12%
- Runner-up: ↓ $126 at 7%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $150 | 12¢ | −5pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-palantir-technologies-inc-pltr-hit-in-ma-polymarket-0x6f8135e74fc6da95fc8ed2407c3129f18918e0859b216f3c7babb421c1a3131a |
| ↓ $126 | 7¢ | +3pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-palantir-technologies-inc-pltr-hit-in-ma-polymarket-0x2ec4547d95ac1aa7a9ef1a75b53422f627cf072ac39413f0d5458182e04f4d2a |
| ↓ $120 | 3¢ | +2pp | $493 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-palantir-technologies-inc-pltr-hit-in-ma-polymarket-0x499cdf98fb71b25a081b8189acc79f3090d6749c24da9b97b3c51d600f5cb21c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↑ $150 | ↓ $126 | ↓ $120 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 20 | 52 | 25 |
| 2026-05-21 | 16 | 27 | 10 |
| 2026-05-27 | 7 | 22 | 5 |
| 2026-05-28 | 2 | — | 7 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-21 · ↓ $126 −8pp 35→27¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-21 · ↓ $120 −7pp 17→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · ↑ $150 −5pp 7→2¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · ↑ $150 −4pp 16→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · ↓ $126 −3pp 27→24¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Palantir's stock will decline to $126 or below during May 2026. At 48%, the outcome is viewed as the most likely among several downside and upside scenarios. The high trading volume ($23k in 24 hours) indicates active uncertainty around the stock's near-term direction. Downside bets dominate the contract set, with three of five outcomes positioned below current levels, suggesting traders weight negative momentum or profit-taking. The runner-up contract at 22% assumes an even steeper decline to $120, while bullish scenarios above $150 total only 23% combined. Key drivers include Palantir's earnings performance, macroeconomic sentiment affecting growth-oriented tech stocks, and broader market volatility. The outcome resolves at month-end, making company announcements, economic data, or significant geopolitical developments the primary catalysts that could shift probabilities substantially before expiration.

### Key factors

- Downside contracts account for 74% of aggregate probability, indicating sustained bearish positioning relative to upside scenarios
- Trading volume is concentrated in the $126 contract ($23k 24h), suggesting this threshold represents a material price level traders view as probable
- High-probability downside outcomes ($108–$126) collectively represent 52%, versus only 23% for upside moves above $150, indicating asymmetric risk perception
- The $20 spread between the leading outcome ($126) and runner-up ($120) creates marginal conviction, leaving room for repricing if company fundamentals or macro conditions shift
- May expiration provides limited time for resolution; contract pricing reflects expected moves within a compressed timeframe rather than longer-term trend expectations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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