# What price will Aster hit in 2026 — ↓ 0.40

> ↓ 0.40 leads at 62%, runner-up 55% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-price-aster-hit
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:38.359Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: ↓ 0.40 at 62%
- Runner-up: ↑ 1.40 at 55%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 0.40 | 62¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-aster-hit-in-2026-040-polymarket-0x178da1dc9f5834e73de9a98a6c9be86e244128e9abcc590b23df7dc2d2929fe8 |
| ↑ 1.40 | 55¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-aster-hit-in-2026-140-polymarket-0xf6e76fcb8bc6852611349ac43fc7824b4a6550d1390bf96b3f36eb58affa4c77 |
| ↓ 0.20 | 33¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-aster-hit-in-2026-020-polymarket-0x0c6a0ade047576be52f0e64b228e2934cd30188690ce31ee4df22d9c5e519b54 |
| ↑ 1.60 | 24¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-aster-hit-in-2026-160-polymarket-0x752bb86e2822381471bb047ec30b254106a0d6a13225ea2649d95820b7cbc138 |
| ↑ 1.80 | 18¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-aster-hit-in-2026-180-polymarket-0x4ae1b19c7aa6459e631a3731c8c983c244ac9009f5276de5d1c7a67e18fb865a |
| ↑ 2.00 | 16¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-aster-hit-in-2026-200-polymarket-0x5362b5bd84892d9c16e0b0ad0743a1587f3de5329544a93b2771fc260e829e89 |
| ↑ 2.20 | 14¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-aster-hit-in-2026-220-polymarket-0xe382429c92c594f494def1ff83d5cf68fecd4a700e35ff7b5174db81abc4cd8b |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↓ 0.40 | ↑ 1.40 | ↓ 0.20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 51 | 44 | 42 |
| 2026-04-25 | 49 | 42 | 35 |
| 2026-05-02 | 48 | 56 | 34 |
| 2026-05-09 | 59 | 52 | 34 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · ↑ 1.80 −27pp 45→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · ↓ 0.40 +9pp 51→60¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · ↑ 1.60 −4pp 31→27¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · ↑ 1.40 −4pp 60→56¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · ↑ 1.60 −3pp 27→24¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market is assessing whether Aster will trade below $0.40 by the end of 2026, with traders currently estimating a 52% probability of that outcome. The pricing reflects uncertainty about Aster's fundamental adoption and utility over the next seven months. Market interest remains modest, with volume concentrated in Bitcoin price predictions rather than Aster specifically. Upward pressure on this probability would come from declining developer activity, reduced token utility, or broader cryptocurrency market weakness. Downward pressure would require evidence of increased platform usage, partnerships, or positive technical developments. The key uncertainty is whether Aster can maintain or grow its current valuation amid competitive pressures in its category. Resolution depends entirely on Aster's actual trading price on December 31, 2026, making near-term adoption metrics and market sentiment the primary drivers of probability movement.

### Key factors

- Current Aster price relative to $0.40 threshold and recent volatility trends determine baseline probability calibration
- Developer activity, GitHub commits, and ecosystem partnerships provide signals about long-term token utility and adoption potential
- Trading volume and liquidity depth on major exchanges affect price stability and the likelihood of reaching specific price targets
- Broader cryptocurrency market conditions, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum performance, historically correlate with altcoin valuations
- Competitive dynamics within Aster's specific category and emergence of alternative solutions could pressure token economics

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-price-aster-hit
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=what-price-aster-hit

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.