# What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026 — ↑ 120,000

> ↓ 55,000 leads at 71%, runner-up 56% across 15 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-price-bitcoin-hit
Updated: 2026-06-08T05:20:10.313Z
Category: crypto · Topic: bitcoin
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: ↓ 55,000 at 71%
- Runner-up: ↓ 50,000 at 56%
- Outcomes: 15 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $187K

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 55,000 | 71¢ | −2pp | $40K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-55000-polymarket-0x752fa61c93f16c4b15e85b0bd438d9c684176b0ea7b319a84c8aca34616e8a8c |
| ↓ 50,000 | 56¢ | −4pp | $15K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-50000-polymarket-0xce3c54c3e773e8b3bf73e4c12af93205b21195d03b9c386e22f274b9acfc2c56 |
| ↓ 45,000 | 41¢ | −2pp | $14K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-45000-polymarket-0x024b68f77bfc019341ee3db8f57c103334e4b9430bba4746d8c94aafd8b36fee |
| ↓ 40,000 | 31¢ | −2pp | $13K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-40000-polymarket-0x1e5564c1a2a6839cc2780a889437c63786a2c2ec5e95569b710ee659a3e8baa2 |
| ↑ 90,000 | 27¢ | ±0 | $34K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-90000-polymarket-0xbb379a14cd03f68c35c279ddbd928a6326f4fd2e21827f8cdaaf59715d6df50e |
| ↓ 35,000 | 21¢ | −1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-35000-polymarket-0x2745c38ff0617cb345c1d2df19b4f74ea777508e07411e88eeb6ab3affcda2a2 |
| ↑ 100,000 | 19¢ | ±0 | $16K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-100000-polymarket-0xdaa4866bae18be58c5a79d2aeeffd035ec78f1bb49dbd88f72993997778a990f |
| ↓ 30,000 | 15¢ | ±0 | $3K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-30000-polymarket-0x903a1387e6414be5529efc8f7757e30371e6698de9d68fa4ce33252009db69ef |
| ↑ 110,000 | 14¢ | ±0 | $4K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-110000-polymarket-0x63eaf41ce1f475323e2202d7dfa3b1def8b82cd166f7007c50bfbf47615c7b01 |
| ↑ 120,000 | 12¢ | ±0 | $13K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-120000-polymarket-0xf9b6b5c3c6e07afe4aad6ed9ce4fa7545f9c2baa9f1dc632cd81a085c99acfe4 |
| ↑ 130,000 | 8¢ | −1pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-130000-polymarket-0x885a6abefad122348b4fbd503473d7fd1f9035d0438cf988a7591620f316a859 |
| ↑ 140,000 | 6¢ | −1pp | $6K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-140000-polymarket-0xf0a4c0bc8a8162f0ac95b5a5af7fa665d20a19ca0db03b9117514dafc695f15e |
| ↓ 10,000 | 5¢ | ±0 | $4K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-10000-polymarket-0xd8a5843555ba95455a28d895660c07c59b615184bf4ae64893992f3504797d29 |
| ↑ 160,000 | 4¢ | ±0 | $12K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-160000-polymarket-0x472c9035786b390c08e674fc60bddda488957e1b8aecad3f5480cc531a0754b0 |
| ↓ 5,000 | 4¢ | ±0 | $6K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-5000-polymarket-0xe681a6326237f3b17ce8622728b6cd104281dfe4d2b38f4520fd7f1734cf3469 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↓ 55,000 | ↓ 50,000 | ↓ 45,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 45 | — | 26 |
| 2026-05-10 | 44 | 35 | 26 |
| 2026-05-25 | 49 | 39 | 31 |
| 2026-06-01 | 54 | 43 | 32 |
| 2026-06-07 | 75 | 59 | 43 |
| 2026-06-08 | 73 | — | 41 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-02 · ↑ 90,000 −11pp 50→39¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · ↓ 55,000 +9pp 54→63¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · ↓ 55,000 +6pp 65→71¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-05 · ↓ 50,000 +6pp 54→60¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · ↓ 55,000 +5pp 75→80¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

Markets currently assign an 95% probability that Bitcoin will trade above $80,000 by year-end 2026, with smaller probabilities allocated to higher price targets ($120,000 and $200,000) and lower thresholds. This reflects trader expectations of continued appreciation from current levels. The assessment depends heavily on macroeconomic conditions—particularly US monetary policy, inflation trajectories, and institutional adoption rates—which would shift probabilities if interest rates, regulatory clarity, or institutional inflows change materially. The runner-up contract at 49% suggests meaningful disagreement about intermediate price levels. Trading volume concentrates in downside protection ($45,000 and $50,000 thresholds), indicating hedging demand. Resolution occurs at year-end 2026, leaving approximately seven months for spot price discovery and event-driven volatility to move probabilities.

### Key factors

- Current Bitcoin spot price relative to the $80,000 threshold and trajectory of recent price action
- US Federal Reserve policy path and inflation data releases through December 2026, which affect risk-on appetite
- Regulatory announcements affecting cryptocurrency market access, custody, or institutional participation
- Trading volume and open interest trends in Bitcoin futures and spot markets, indicating conviction levels
- Macroeconomic recession probability and correlation shifts between Bitcoin and traditional financial assets

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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