# What price will Chainlink hit in 2026 — ↓ 6

> ↑ 16 leads at 42%, runner-up 35% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-price-chainlink-hit
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:54.920Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: ↑ 16 at 42%
- Runner-up: ↑ 18 at 35%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $26

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 16 | 42¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-chainlink-hit-in-2026-16-polymarket-0x935edf435df98897f8da6fcf19b6262c06a107d18dc10aa0a3b4e1f5d4d84857 |
| ↑ 18 | 35¢ | +8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-chainlink-hit-in-2026-18-polymarket-0x348959679f78cbdfcbca76e83affad0ea89e77ac32d03273552da0cb85d3042a |
| ↑ 20 | 30¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-chainlink-hit-in-2026-20-polymarket-0xc07dd495b7cc45d9861b487f7395d91b3d89cdbbd3c3f7ede15e672d874df013 |
| ↓ 4 | 28¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-chainlink-hit-in-2026-4-polymarket-0x7180bf45f72b134770b47b533189086384f0708af278ddef9c1bf4e0eca3868e |
| ↑ 22 | 25¢ | −1pp | $14 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-chainlink-hit-in-2026-22-polymarket-0x9ea7b1fc86d36c64374a3b578745080ddbb251ad9a22c70ca842385f58bbef39 |
| ↑ 24 | 24¢ | −1pp | $12 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-chainlink-hit-in-2026-24-polymarket-0x62e6bf88bcf0a223bd117a53de85711e8d2b37a286d416ee5828c0b575a23c00 |
| ↓ 6 | 20¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-chainlink-hit-in-2026-6-polymarket-0x60fe8a52fb9e60db0f3df143eefbe46a98e0c5e6fcb19274704d759048291f28 |
| ↑ 26 | 17¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-chainlink-hit-in-2026-26-polymarket-0xf33eb2cad762496b7b2c7fe8e2b9932e6ee7f1d6c56eff8e9daa31a4e7028ae1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↑ 16 | ↑ 18 | ↑ 20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 42 | — | 42 |
| 2026-04-09 | 42 | 45 | 36 |
| 2026-04-19 | 48 | 41 | 30 |
| 2026-04-26 | 44 | 44 | 45 |
| 2026-04-30 | 58 | 34 | 40 |
| 2026-05-03 | 51 | — | 29 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · ↑ 26 −24pp 38→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · ↑ 22 −20pp 53→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · ↑ 26 +19pp 19→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · ↑ 18 −17pp 43→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · ↑ 22 −16pp 33→17¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market participants' belief that Chainlink will trade below a specific price threshold by year-end 2026. The current 54% assessment suggests near-parity between bearish and bullish outcomes, though the leading contract shows a modest lean toward downside. Chainlink's price trajectory will likely depend on two main drivers: broader cryptocurrency market conditions (especially Bitcoin and Ethereum movements, which currently show significant downside pricing in competing contracts) and platform-specific adoption metrics. The primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be Chainlink's actual price on December 31, 2026, alongside quarterly developments in oracle infrastructure adoption and competitive dynamics within the decentralized data provider space. Market participants are currently pricing in meaningful downside risk for the year, evident from the volume concentration in lower-price-threshold contracts across major cryptocurrencies.

### Key factors

- Bitcoin downside contracts (↓45,000 and ↓40,000) are currently pricing at 27¢ and 21¢ respectively with highest trading volume, suggesting market expectations for crypto-wide weakness that would pressure altcoin valuations
- Chainlink's outcome is determined by a single discrete price point on December 31, 2026, making the contract sensitive to year-end volatility and timing of any final trading activity
- Ethereum downside pricing (↓1,500 at 47¢) indicates significant systemic cryptocurrency price concerns that would likely correlate with Chainlink performance
- The runner-up outcome at 38% probability represents material uncertainty, indicating no consensus view and substantial disagreement about price direction among participants
- Current contract pricing reflects roughly 18 months of future uncertainty with no scheduled catalyst events, making the outcome highly dependent on unpredictable macroeconomic and crypto market developments

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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