# What price will edgeX hit in 2026 — ↑ $1.60

> ↑ $2.50 leads at 74%, runner-up 56% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-price-edgex-hit
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:26.563Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: ↑ $2.50 at 74%
- Runner-up: ↑ $3.00 at 56%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $2.50 | 74¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-edgex-hit-in-2026-250-polymarket-0x8f4382e9de2f28c9c16e483c7ff6e1a83d8901e2a4bcabfa5fd40dd03b921e37 |
| ↑ $3.00 | 56¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-edgex-hit-in-2026-300-polymarket-0x552737659df817bcd7dd1af332facdde5e67e0cfce7c85beb2afc3fccf010aa9 |
| ↓ $0.20 | 54¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-edgex-hit-in-2026-020-polymarket-0x8e788f5298afd9a3802bc84f90a60d4ce050edee2bc6de50c75f3ab35f9c71c7 |
| ↑ $1.80 | 53¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-edgex-hit-in-2026-180-polymarket-0x5c4721c8e87e7a7b6bef2bbbb0a9140aab2299202774885b339928ee443201b8 |
| ↓ $0.60 | 52¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-edgex-hit-in-2026-060-polymarket-0x6c6e8141932fe533b9de99b346bb99d5dba1676c328f1dbabafc2d89201f59f0 |
| ↓ $0.40 | 52¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-edgex-hit-in-2026-040-polymarket-0xdee352069a36e5b72fafd904ba10a541076beca19786f08540b8f711b471588c |
| ↑ $1.60 | 48¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-edgex-hit-in-2026-160-polymarket-0x04a33a3ad9f9f2839eb8f43c3ecb530a4ff0c6f9dcd2e62c6ded09ba374fd11e |
| ↑ $2.00 | 43¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-edgex-hit-in-2026-200-polymarket-0x3cdcc1f004b8aee2611b4818243d0e5c33d246dc0f8730b44300bd93ad9104f6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↑ $2.50 | ↑ $3.00 | ↓ $0.20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | 43 | 37 | 49 |
| 2026-05-02 | 62 | 47 | 48 |
| 2026-05-09 | 75 | 49 | 50 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · ↑ $2.50 +12pp 50→62¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · ↑ $2.50 +10pp 62→72¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · ↑ $3.00 +8pp 47→55¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · ↑ $3.00 −4pp 55→51¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · ↓ $0.40 −4pp 50→46¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 76% probability indicates market participants believe edgeX will reach $1.60 or higher by the end of 2026. This assessment reflects current trading dynamics in cryptocurrency derivative markets, where Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements substantially influence altcoin valuations. The leading probability suggests traders view this price target as more likely than not, though the significant gap to the 54% runner-up indicates meaningful uncertainty remains. Key drivers include overall cryptocurrency market conditions through year-end 2026, edgeX's development progress and adoption metrics, and correlation with major asset price movements. The outcome will be determined on or around December 31, 2026, when the contract resolves based on edgeX's spot price. Until then, shifts in Bitcoin and Ethereum valuations—which show considerable dispersion in trader forecasts themselves—will likely influence edgeX positioning.

### Key factors

- Current leader at 76% vs. runner-up at 54% indicates material disagreement on whether $1.60 is achievable, despite one view being significantly favored
- Bitcoin contracts show wide probability distribution (4¢ to 27¢ across $35k-$200k outcomes), suggesting crypto price uncertainty could materially impact edgeX trajectories
- The contract resolves on December 31, 2026; nine months remain for market repricing based on edgeX adoption metrics, protocol developments, or broader market structure changes
- Multi-outcome winner-take-all structure means traders are committing to discrete price bands rather than continuous probabilities, creating threshold effects
- Polymarket aggregation of 8 contracts suggests the 76% reflects distributed trader conviction, though top volume is concentrated in Bitcoin contracts ($31k+ daily volume in single contract)

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=what-price-edgex-hit

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