# What price will Ethereum hit in April — ↓ 2,000

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 20 contracts — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-price-ethereum-hit-april
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:35:32.113Z
Category: crypto · Topic: bitcoin
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $12K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 1,000 | 20¢ | +1pp | $7K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-1000-polymarket-0xacb33346b59a2a3770e2391b7d1b0e77d8dcdcf840a66f5fa01d28db43c4e369 |
| ↓ 800 | 14¢ | +1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-800-polymarket-0x717672a48c5f2938631f6e467b9a48aedb03fa380c0198704ef5acfc91721612 |
| ↑ 4,000 | 26¢ | ±0 | $551 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-4000-polymarket-0x9775cd557a3cdba4f0478070afa399c0805761dd9aa0e7ce4435a71fed32621c |
| ↑ 6,500 | 8¢ | +1pp | $400 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-6500-polymarket-0x0f0499d1049385b1d53ffee6c42a1de7424e551c765211ff2cc6d66329f43a80 |
| ↓ 1,500 | 48¢ | +2pp | $360 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-1500-polymarket-0xcf25ccc8360f3952139fb5e3f14cb9bb0636cb53d0e30e947321ceccab7e9780 |
| ↑ 6,000 | 8¢ | −1pp | $262 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-6000-polymarket-0x6132cc91f7a0ad656e890b9040c159f4057f4c44359b3fb68085ec97156c918a |
| ↑ 4,500 | 17¢ | ±0 | $226 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-4500-polymarket-0xa3143f9c21ecc7a9b036b4e435f48264ff72019a9e3e60dacff4e615020e7e21 |
| ↑ 10,000 | 4¢ | — | $104 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-10000-polymarket-0x201f51d2d892c41c5bfa6568a0a2f93ab2ea426e87dddfd5fb0191f7ec34a441 |
| ↑ 5,500 | 10¢ | −2pp | $100 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-5500-polymarket-0xb75b8c777c5fd934d7fa43d4b3a3f630981b68a362a09471f9a6a6e36c38aac8 |
| ↑ 5,000 | 16¢ | +4pp | $20 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-5000-polymarket-0x1c4fd67ab2a67f508672a69153559911244048b79a40cbe341d12f985ba90a13 |
| ↑ 7,000 | 7¢ | — | $18 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-7000-polymarket-0x4ee2c6081e18cc0d1f3347f6219940bda986657f1d150d17de0677ffc2104de0 |
| 15 Gwei | 53¢ | +8pp | $7 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-h-polymarket-0xe32a73414fb99afa84e4a56141e20dd4f3d3e1a3d1d266bb0360ac7e1c0c6063 |
| ↑ 8,000 | 5¢ | +1pp | $1 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-8000-polymarket-0xac0b4316113b50e0e667918aee72fa0eb006342245a52ab6371f3732af5733c8 |
| ↑ 3,500 | 39¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-3500-polymarket-0x42945ea5657d6f6e77969a06661b29d6f6295083d1ef3479b42efd90647c9dfc |
| ↑ 7,500 | 6¢ | +6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-7500-polymarket-0x4fc8725f00ba06576d7c78131e4589cc93a4e133128e8ca50c8f7ba34efeaaa1 |
| 25 Gwei | 26¢ | +7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-h-polymarket-0x9ea0030337e6416cfbd5e9a52ffb4c80575953b45a52bc513f2d7ecbe299d5f2 |
| 20 Gwei | 42¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-h-polymarket-0x85d9eadb263a3688205737d1c624458de2f9ef2cc5c1cfbb765babad6bfdcacc |
| 40 Gwei | 15¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-h-polymarket-0xb5d84b0d831b64feb65dbd8f8b6ff92ac739cfdd13676770d2b13087f1a0d386 |
| 10 Gwei | 47¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-h-polymarket-0x9cd09f37da8da9995d5bdba7b386b89e09dd5dcfed0f001f1ce5dfa7d3cfd76a |
| 5 Gwei | 27¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-the-average-monthly-ethereum-gas-price-h-polymarket-0xa6a9daa0a7576efdf9edef5095c120059c80f0ddf6a5af75e0b000a646e0d16e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 28 |
| 2026-04-19 | 25 |
| 2026-04-26 | 27 |
| 2026-05-03 | 31 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · 25 Gwei +30pp 11→41¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · 25 Gwei −24pp 41→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · ↑ 5,500 −17pp 29→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · ↑ 8,000 −17pp 22→5¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · 20 Gwei +17pp 20→37¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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