# What price will Ethereum hit in 2026 — ↓ 1,000

> ↑ 1,750 leads at 88%, runner-up 86% across 19 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 59 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-price-ethereum-hit
Updated: 2026-06-10T00:20:07.390Z
Category: crypto · Topic: bitcoin
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: ↑ 1,750 at 88%
- Runner-up: ↓ 1,500 at 86%
- Outcomes: 19 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $20K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 1,750 | 88¢ | — | $14 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-1750-polymarket-0xe12dfbc959ea19f6317cfc29b8140082d78b91a5fb268c67acadc2a467bbadd3 |
| ↓ 1,500 | 86¢ | −3pp | $213 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-1500-polymarket-0xcf25ccc8360f3952139fb5e3f14cb9bb0636cb53d0e30e947321ceccab7e9780 |
| ↑ 2,000 | 75¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-2000-polymarket-0x0d4126627c8e8716a54abb34d8e75422065717f34993ecc2813760347eeefb6a |
| ↓ 1,250 | 69¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-1250-polymarket-0x766996108017c3b6452c23db79ab1c714d8d9d9da846a4c316f5e047754a229d |
| ↑ 2,750 | 60¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-2750-polymarket-0x4f7001aa8358add0d24f882618b534716b5e86b39de3a7339b1d0d312af7f959 |
| ↓ 1,000 | 24¢ | −6pp | $575 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-1000-polymarket-0xacb33346b59a2a3770e2391b7d1b0e77d8dcdcf840a66f5fa01d28db43c4e369 |
| ↑ 3,500 | 15¢ | +2pp | $187 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-3500-polymarket-0x42945ea5657d6f6e77969a06661b29d6f6295083d1ef3479b42efd90647c9dfc |
| ↓ 800 | 14¢ | −3pp | $91 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-800-polymarket-0x717672a48c5f2938631f6e467b9a48aedb03fa380c0198704ef5acfc91721612 |
| ↑ 4,000 | 10¢ | ±0 | $620 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-4000-polymarket-0x9775cd557a3cdba4f0478070afa399c0805761dd9aa0e7ce4435a71fed32621c |
| ↓ 700 | 10¢ | — | $57 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-700-polymarket-0x9edfa758bc6a6c5885119173a76bfde542641a870b747af43f0103f231e14f67 |
| ↓ 600 | 10¢ | −15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-600-polymarket-0x72353ee551d7ba6993b60aaf0ef3382646c8f3242112985709bca04261c468d2 |
| ↑ 4,500 | 9¢ | ±0 | $5K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-4500-polymarket-0xa3143f9c21ecc7a9b036b4e435f48264ff72019a9e3e60dacff4e615020e7e21 |
| ↑ 5,000 | 9¢ | +1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-5000-polymarket-0x1c4fd67ab2a67f508672a69153559911244048b79a40cbe341d12f985ba90a13 |
| ↑ 5,500 | 7¢ | −1pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-5500-polymarket-0xb75b8c777c5fd934d7fa43d4b3a3f630981b68a362a09471f9a6a6e36c38aac8 |
| ↑ 6,000 | 6¢ | ±0 | $119 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-6000-polymarket-0x6132cc91f7a0ad656e890b9040c159f4057f4c44359b3fb68085ec97156c918a |
| ↑ 6,500 | 5¢ | −1pp | $16 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-6500-polymarket-0x0f0499d1049385b1d53ffee6c42a1de7424e551c765211ff2cc6d66329f43a80 |
| ↑ 8,000 | 3¢ | +1pp | $7K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-8000-polymarket-0xac0b4316113b50e0e667918aee72fa0eb006342245a52ab6371f3732af5733c8 |
| ↑ 7,500 | 3¢ | +1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-7500-polymarket-0x4fc8725f00ba06576d7c78131e4589cc93a4e133128e8ca50c8f7ba34efeaaa1 |
| ↑ 7,000 | 3¢ | −1pp | $148 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-7000-polymarket-0x4ee2c6081e18cc0d1f3347f6219940bda986657f1d150d17de0677ffc2104de0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↑ 1,750 | ↓ 1,500 | ↑ 2,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | — | 36 | — |
| 2026-05-27 | — | 52 | — |
| 2026-06-03 | — | 68 | — |
| 2026-06-08 | 73 | 83 | 63 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-09 · ↓ 600 −15pp 24→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-05 · ↓ 1,500 +11pp 74→85¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · ↓ 1,500 +8pp 85→93¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · ↓ 1,500 −7pp 93→86¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-08 · ↓ 1,000 −6pp 29→23¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents traders' assessment that Ethereum will fall below $1,500 by the end of 2026, currently attracting 47% probability. The prediction reflects competing pressures: Ethereum faces headwinds from macroeconomic uncertainty, potential regulatory tightening, and competition from alternative blockchain platforms, which would drive prices downward. Conversely, growing institutional adoption, developments in Ethereum's scaling solutions, and broader cryptocurrency market recovery could push prices higher. The resolution depends primarily on Bitcoin's trajectory, which historically correlates strongly with Ethereum movement, and the outcome of regulatory clarity in major markets by late 2026. Current trading volume ($10,107 in 24 hours) suggests moderate but sustained interest in this particular price threshold. The runner-up outcome at 39% indicates meaningful disagreement about which price range Ethereum will occupy.

### Key factors

- Ethereum's historical correlation with Bitcoin means Bitcoin's price path is a primary driver; Bitcoin downside scenarios currently trade at higher volumes than upside scenarios
- Regulatory announcements in the US, EU, or Asia regarding cryptocurrency classification and taxation could significantly shift probabilities in either direction
- Ethereum's technical upgrades and Layer 2 adoption metrics through 2026 will influence whether the asset retains or loses institutional support
- Macroeconomic factors including Federal Reserve policy and inflation trends influence risk-on/risk-off sentiment affecting all crypto assets
- The $1,500 threshold represents roughly 40-50% below mid-2024 prices, indicating traders expect either stagnation or meaningful correction rather than growth

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/bitcoin

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