# What price will Lighter hit in 2026 — ↑ $10

> ↑ $3 leads at 20%, runner-up 14% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-price-lighter-hit
Updated: 2026-05-09T06:35:28.568Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: ↑ $3 at 20%
- Runner-up: ↑ $4 at 14%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $590

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $3 | 20¢ | ±0 | $578 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-lighter-hit-in-2026-3-polymarket-0x6cc6478d9b2ac0fa5787137c07df5466ddda2fc8df41c4c69c3626a999601679 |
| ↑ $4 | 14¢ | +9pp | $11 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-lighter-hit-in-2026-4-polymarket-0x554c41caa3828e43783ec03e890e0c5e3dcb238dd5a978f48346aa0016d8e40c |
| ↑ $6 | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-lighter-hit-in-2026-6-polymarket-0xd42bc0cd483969c7f7989b5d16e8307c545a040500a910b10908dfc1c21ac461 |
| ↑ $8 | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-lighter-hit-in-2026-8-polymarket-0xf120ef5c3ef7015aa629f5963cc73c83f9ee05c9dc2290dc32aa076869098b29 |
| ↑ $10 | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-lighter-hit-in-2026-10-polymarket-0x3392d482621c56ea88b671505df166ab696f540e35f775f459cd1531e9175855 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↑ $3 | ↑ $4 | ↑ $6 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | 16 | 10 |
| 2026-04-15 | 17 | — | 11 |
| 2026-04-24 | 19 | — | 11 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | — | 11 |
| 2026-04-28 | 36 | 24 | 7 |
| 2026-05-02 | 18 | — | 9 |
| 2026-05-08 | 18 | — | 9 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract predicts whether Lighter, a cryptocurrency token, will reach $10 at any point during 2026. The current 18% probability indicates markets view this price target as unlikely but meaningful, with roughly 1-in-5 odds. The price reflects uncertainty around Lighter's adoption trajectory, competition in its segment, and broader crypto market conditions. Upward movement would likely follow announcements of major partnerships, exchange listings, or protocol upgrades; downward pressure would come from failed releases or sustained low trading volume. The resolution depends entirely on spot-price data at major exchanges through December 31, 2026, making any significant market rallies or downturns the primary catalyst for probability shifts.

### Key factors

- Current Lighter trading price relative to $10 target and historical volatility patterns
- Exchange listing status and liquidity depth across major trading venues
- Competitive positioning versus similar tokens in Lighter's market segment
- Broader crypto market correlation, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum price performance
- Development milestone completion and mainnet or feature launch timelines announced by the team

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-price-lighter-hit
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=what-price-lighter-hit

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.