# What price will Plasma hit in 2026 — ↑ 0.40

> ↑ 0.24 leads at 45%, runner-up 15% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-price-plasma-hit
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:26.914Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: ↑ 0.24 at 45%
- Runner-up: ↑ 0.30 at 15%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 0.24 | 45¢ | +13pp | $1 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-plasma-hit-in-2026-024-polymarket-0x6e474b5545b81f3106429411b4dfc519ec3281d493b8428d756f13f021e3bedd |
| ↑ 0.30 | 15¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-plasma-hit-in-2026-030-polymarket-0x21246c4750f81983b8b8ab2efc341c8777bff7063ca73ddd576ad162fcbb4293 |
| ↑ 0.40 | 12¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-plasma-hit-in-2026-040-polymarket-0x96ec8d3aa8a2571791cdc47d41bc4269358cad35c646ee6a4493f767b69cfe61 |
| ↑ 0.50 | 12¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-plasma-hit-in-2026-050-polymarket-0xcf091663b4e492100bf21200ee1b883d60154cb53d9a4f033e9bd7a7cf2c6958 |
| ↑ 1.20 | 12¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-plasma-hit-in-2026-120-polymarket-0x8a8eddd2c9251a77490641689f642a499af5764b41df18d4199a33242588cd29 |
| ↑ 0.60 | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-plasma-hit-in-2026-060-polymarket-0x71fc20c0e647e221f7c04740b2a3422e2cb1f9ecbb648b4fa30c82d84e6ecb20 |
| ↑ 1.40 | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-plasma-hit-in-2026-140-polymarket-0x6a192256859204a483fe3e4110db652bfff03c6b48328c1b7faff038a461713f |
| ↑ 1.60 | 10¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-plasma-hit-in-2026-160-polymarket-0x9d9f4835a93654a6eab7ae62ff218b756907332ac3d8f4e3996553c8fb9ed3f6 |
| ↑ 1.80 | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-plasma-hit-in-2026-180-polymarket-0xf7c67280a65bed2e8a8d19581ca18912680c86c4901334f11da3a8315684954f |
| ↑ 2.20 | 6¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-plasma-hit-in-2026-220-polymarket-0x245596ae9ab94c6e3dd338c2ea7e0dab993e51180d15584053a4e20b4611fa84 |
| ↑ 2.00 | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-plasma-hit-in-2026-200-polymarket-0x6fc53076503875f4c022f4c728722bb3689bf2d317cb72b3264003946999181c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↑ 0.24 | ↑ 0.30 | ↑ 0.40 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 46 | 42 | 39 |
| 2026-04-25 | 45 | 40 | 35 |
| 2026-05-02 | 52 | 44 | 39 |
| 2026-05-07 | 32 | 14 | 43 |
| 2026-05-08 | 45 | 14 | — |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 15 | — |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · ↑ 0.50 −24pp 35→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · ↑ 1.40 −19pp 35→16¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · ↑ 0.30 −17pp 31→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · ↑ 0.60 −14pp 35→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · ↑ 0.50 −14pp 49→35¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 45% probability indicates that traders view a specific price outcome for Plasma as moderately likely but not the most probable scenario in a winner-take-all market with multiple competing outcomes. The current leading position faces competition from alternative price predictions, with the runner-up at 31% suggesting meaningful disagreement about Plasma's trajectory. Bitcoin and Ethereum contracts show traders are actively pricing crypto volatility across multiple assets through 2026, with significant trading volume concentrated on downside price boundaries. The actual resolution will depend on Plasma's technical adoption, market sentiment shifts, and broader cryptocurrency market conditions over the remaining months of 2026. Trading activity levels and the spacing between competing outcomes suggest moderate confidence rather than strong conviction in any single price scenario.

### Key factors

- The leading contract at 45% faces material competition from a 31% runner-up, indicating divided trader opinion rather than consensus
- Top contract trading volumes show varying conviction levels, with Bitcoin downside ($45k) at 27¢ receiving 31x the volume of Bitcoin upside ($200k) at 4¢
- The 11-contract structure means probability is distributed across multiple bound outcomes, reducing any single prediction's absolute weight
- Crypto price markets typically show heavy volume clustering around round numbers and technical support/resistance levels
- Historical volatility in cryptocurrency markets suggests prediction markets require substantial new information to shift probabilities materially across seasons

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-price-plasma-hit
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=what-price-plasma-hit

## License

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