# What price will Solana hit in May — ↓ 80

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 3% across 1 contract — refreshed 27 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-price-solana-hit-may
Updated: 2026-05-28T21:20:07.688Z
Category: general · Topic: bitcoin
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Probability: 3% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $31K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 70 | 3¢ | +3pp | $31K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-solana-hit-in-may-70-polymarket-0x17f75289919e3a2c1aac51c68827c4a53939162ff4b739f1c0609d6967dc97ec |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 2 |
| 2026-05-28 | 5 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · ↓ 70 +3pp 2→5¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract reflects a 58% probability that Solana's price will close May 2026 below $80. The current market assessment suggests traders view a sub-$80 close as slightly more likely than a finish at or above that level. Price movements depend primarily on broader cryptocurrency market sentiment, Bitcoin's performance as a leading indicator, and any technical developments affecting Solana's network or ecosystem adoption. The outcome resolves automatically when May concludes, with the contract settling based on Solana's closing price on May 31, 2026. Until then, volatility in spot prices on major exchanges will continuously influence trader expectations embedded in this probability.

### Key factors

- Solana's price as of late May 2026 relative to the $80 threshold—current spot price on major exchanges like Coinbase or Kraken
- Bitcoin's price trajectory and overall cryptocurrency market capitalization trends, which typically correlate with altcoin performance
- Any protocol upgrades, validator issues, or network outages affecting Solana's technical reliability in May 2026
- Volume and liquidity on Solana trading pairs, as low liquidity can amplify price swings in either direction
- Regulatory announcements or institutional adoption developments that could shift risk appetite for altcoins during the period

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-price-solana-hit-may
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=what-price-solana-hit-may
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/bitcoin

## License

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