# What price will Solana hit in 2026 — ↓ 20

> ↓ 60 leads at 71%, runner-up 67% across 18 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 43 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-price-solana-hit
Updated: 2026-06-17T00:20:48.503Z
Category: general · Topic: bitcoin
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: ↓ 60 at 71%
- Runner-up: ↑ 80 at 67%
- Outcomes: 18 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 60 | 71¢ | +2pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-solana-hit-in-2026-60-polymarket-0x0135f2ed385fd81fa2af3b98720ee3ba440ea4a719636c1493f15a23366fc27e |
| ↑ 80 | 67¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-solana-hit-in-2026-80-polymarket-0x83e5d448b52e3fcbf2190029494cd613b47fababf81217cda3a3a542e075289c |
| ↑ 100 | 62¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-solana-hit-in-2026-100-polymarket-0xa992072cb4d380fd9537c31c9df65db6b80f1e1b6c6546f8cb909b94e62efebc |
| ↑ 90 | 57¢ | +17pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-solana-hit-in-2026-90-polymarket-0x04834ea7a1350da36b247762277a78a97d27bc4201205f8b4e16194e20217152 |
| ↓ 50 | 56¢ | +5pp | $290 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-solana-hit-in-2026-50-polymarket-0xfe1c00ef5583143875abb67bef9254a7e1a2afeb48ff83926c3c61ff947a927d |
| ↑ 120 | 47¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-solana-hit-in-2026-120-polymarket-0x7bd108cb4e84d39db267ae09d19536805a874e540905f0b3b0fad8154170b4c2 |
| ↓ 40 | 38¢ | −1pp | $410 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-solana-hit-in-2026-40-polymarket-0x5c2f3ac4fe84f1a399f9f1e05de8e5cf1a5e80e2de32e92c084253972a3e7e67 |
| ↑ 140 | 29¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-solana-hit-in-2026-140-polymarket-0x8b2c465928dfda7a0decfb93bc4bbd60e067a6c57016d678dd97c49ba76f3bdd |
| ↓ 30 | 22¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-solana-hit-in-2026-30-polymarket-0x010ed9daa2217b604af9c967c865929f03fe990c1aba0b6d682ee1734677ac14 |
| ↑ 160 | 19¢ | +3pp | $372 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-solana-hit-in-2026-160-polymarket-0x715479b7c428c778fba2e26bbf30e0c06c9e878acdcf1be461be736ef0f554a3 |
| ↑ 180 | 12¢ | ±0 | $635 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-solana-hit-in-2026-180-polymarket-0x88ceaf60937fbe7162bf8b763ac311a96e6d871ecc7f68495cc8cda3adefa52e |
| ↓ 20 | 11¢ | −1pp | $766 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-solana-hit-in-2026-20-polymarket-0x0bccf8ce01fcd188575a96ab88ed928260e72cc4c3aacf0e82fa5ab4570dbae6 |
| ↑ 200 | 9¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-solana-hit-in-2026-200-polymarket-0x53351e50bb5281f05a6e193aa9ccf79b041ae6386c8a66d2b6934817cfbd6c1f |
| ↑ 220 | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-solana-hit-in-2026-220-polymarket-0x7b24842f374b36510468c724cbea586384fe621b6547a40d3dad77f1ac3ac4cb |
| ↑ 240 | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-solana-hit-in-2026-240-polymarket-0x19ecee81e16eda5912046379f31ed8f3b75ca55955a014d579813a4a4770cd89 |
| ↑ 260 | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-solana-hit-in-2026-260-polymarket-0x5a353d8c813b4d64760281674d63d1232080fd895c9ffe6b23fab2aec55ebdee |
| ↑ 280 | 5¢ | −1pp | $1 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-solana-hit-in-2026-280-polymarket-0x5c1d1a216a212d9a99177c940685192888473c890fa704427321bcd02a869ab8 |
| ↑ 300 | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-solana-hit-in-2026-300-polymarket-0xd4f01de9b51a47bcf5594cfe7ee2b135b8195e574f875081f4f0fba1e8dfe5e2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↓ 60 | ↑ 80 | ↑ 100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 74 | — | — |
| 2026-06-03 | 71 | — | — |
| 2026-06-08 | 85 | 57 | 51 |
| 2026-06-10 | 92 | 69 | 61 |
| 2026-06-16 | 70 | 56 | 68 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-12 · ↓ 30 −27pp 50→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-10 · ↑ 140 −23pp 50→27¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-11 · ↓ 30 +18pp 32→50¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-15 · ↑ 90 +17pp 54→71¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-15 · ↓ 60 −14pp 82→68¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates a 62% probability that Solana will trade below $20 by the end of 2026. The estimate reflects bearish sentiment relative to Solana's historical price levels, driven primarily by broader cryptocurrency market volatility and concerns about network adoption. Major factors influencing this probability include macroeconomic conditions affecting risk assets, regulatory developments for cryptocurrencies, and Solana-specific metrics around transaction volume and developer activity. The resolution depends on Solana's year-end trading price, which will be determined by market conditions throughout 2026. Current trading volume across related crypto contracts suggests modest conviction, with significant price movement potential if key technical levels are breached or if major announcements affect institutional adoption of the network.

### Key factors

- Solana's current price relative to $20 threshold determines the minimum move required for the down-outcome to resolve
- Regulatory announcements or enforcement actions targeting major cryptocurrency exchanges or staking protocols could accelerate downward pressure
- Developer migration patterns and transaction throughput metrics will indicate whether network adoption trends support higher valuations
- Macroeconomic interest rate policy and risk-asset sentiment will disproportionately affect volatile cryptocurrency prices
- Historical volatility of Solana suggests significant price moves are feasible regardless of fundamental network developments

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=what-price-solana-hit
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/bitcoin

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