# What price will XRP hit in May — ↓ 1.20

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 7% across 1 contract — refreshed 48 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-price-xrp-hit-may
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.531Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Probability: 7% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $25K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 1.20 | 7¢ | +5pp | $25K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-xrp-hit-in-may-120-polymarket-0xe15f87a5f0628f8f88ac55cb54438226fcf3d13c6b0239a06407bc803f9baaae |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 14 |
| 2026-05-28 | 19 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · ↓ 1.20 +5pp 14→19¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract predicts whether XRP will close May 2026 below $1.20, currently trading at 14% probability, indicating traders assess this outcome as unlikely but possible. XRP's price level relative to this threshold depends primarily on broader cryptocurrency market conditions and regulatory developments affecting the asset class. The contract resolves at the end of May, making spot price on May 31st the determining factor. Key drivers include Bitcoin's momentum, which typically influences altcoin valuations, and any regulatory announcements affecting XRP specifically—Ripple's ongoing litigation history means new legal developments could materially shift sentiment. Trading volume of $10,780 in 24 hours suggests moderate liquidity but limited transaction depth on this particular contract.

### Key factors

- XRP's current price level relative to $1.20 and recent trading range establishes the baseline for probability assessment
- Bitcoin and broader cryptocurrency market performance typically drives altcoin price movements and explains most XRP volatility
- Regulatory announcements or legal developments specific to Ripple or XRP could trigger sharp repricing of this outcome
- Contract liquidity ($10,780 daily volume) is moderate but not deep, meaning large trades could move the quoted probability
- Time remaining until May 31st resolution affects how much time remains for catalysts to move the price across the $1.20 threshold

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-price-xrp-hit-may
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=what-price-xrp-hit-may

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.