# What will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit in May 2026 — ↓ $70

> ↑ $85 leads at 81%, runner-up 13% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-robinhood-markets-inc-hood-hit-may
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.214Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: ↑ $85 at 81%
- Runner-up: ↑ $90 at 13%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $85 | 81¢ | +1pp | $821 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-robinhood-markets-inc-hood-hit-in-may-20-polymarket-0x272d6493c52eba0ace2a9227aecc12ec1652865551d247fe19ef53f2ee440420 |
| ↑ $90 | 13¢ | +1pp | $455 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-robinhood-markets-inc-hood-hit-in-may-20-polymarket-0xbc7d6755993254ddae096b6ffd382aa74d989677f6634051bc821a38d49a96af |
| ↓ $70 | 3¢ | −9pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-robinhood-markets-inc-hood-hit-in-may-20-polymarket-0x72843b20808ee4b5c1e07458b86ca15b9760344904a9c6464692bde7125a15f6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↑ $85 | ↑ $90 | ↓ $70 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 35 | 18 | 43 |
| 2026-05-21 | 17 | 8 | 33 |
| 2026-05-28 | 6 | 4 | 9 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-27 · ↓ $70 −16pp 34→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · ↓ $70 −13pp 47→34¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · ↓ $70 +11pp 42→53¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-21 · ↓ $70 −10pp 43→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · ↓ $70 +9pp 33→42¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates a 40% probability that Robinhood Markets' stock price will touch $70 or below during May 2026. Market participants are pricing in meaningful downside risk, with the second-most-likely outcome being an upward move to $85. The current price level of HOOD and recent volatility in retail trading stocks appear to be driving expectations. Key factors include overall market conditions and Fed policy direction, which affect investor appetite for retail brokerage stocks; Robinhood's quarterly earnings results and user growth metrics; competitive dynamics in the retail trading space; and broader sentiment around fintech valuations. Any significant market correction or disappointing earnings would increase the probability of the downside outcome, while strong earnings or sector momentum would favor upside scenarios.

### Key factors

- HOOD's current stock price relative to the $70 threshold and recent 30-60 day price trajectory
- Scheduled earnings announcements or major product updates planned for May 2026
- Broader market indices and volatility levels, particularly performance of fintech and retail trading sector peers
- Trading volume and retail investor activity metrics, which directly impact Robinhood's business performance
- Changes in regulatory environment or compliance costs affecting brokerage margins

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-robinhood-markets-inc-hood-hit-may
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=what-robinhood-markets-inc-hood-hit-may

## License

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