# What will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in April 2026 — ↓ $56

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 59% across 20 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-rocket-lab-usa-inc-rklb-hit-april
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:35:08.624Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 59% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 67¢ | −2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/what-states-will-redistrict-before-the-2026-congre-kalshi-kxredistricting-26-al |
| Revenue guidance | 84¢ | +7pp | $895 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-palantir-technologies-inc-say-during-the-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpltr-26may04-reve |
| Government Contract | 20¢ | −1pp | $821 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-palantir-technologies-inc-say-during-the-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpltr-26may04-gove |
| Revenue | 68¢ | −10pp | $802 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-lyft-inc-say-during-their-next-earnings-kalshi-kxearningsmentionlyft-26may07-reve |
| Nvidia | 47¢ | +3pp | $546 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-palantir-technologies-inc-say-during-the-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpltr-26may04-nvid |
| Stellantis | 42¢ | +1pp | $461 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-palantir-technologies-inc-say-during-the-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpltr-26may04-stel |
| International | 97¢ | +1pp | $391 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-palantir-technologies-inc-say-during-the-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpltr-26may04-inte |
| Stablecoin / Stable Coin | 71¢ | +8pp | $336 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-paypal-holdings-inc-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpypl-26may05-stab |
| Safety | 43¢ | −15pp | $314 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-lyft-inc-say-during-their-next-earnings-kalshi-kxearningsmentionlyft-26may07-safe |
| Israel | 54¢ | +1pp | $261 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-palantir-technologies-inc-say-during-the-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpltr-26may04-isra |
| Bitcoin | 15¢ | −4pp | $221 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-paypal-holdings-inc-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpypl-26may05-bitc |
| OpenAI | 74¢ | +7pp | $207 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-shopify-inc-say-during-their-next-earnin-kalshi-kxearningsmentionshop-26may05-open |
| Commercial Growth | 29¢ | +2pp | $192 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-palantir-technologies-inc-say-during-the-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpltr-26may04-comm |
| Healthcare | 53¢ | −3pp | $181 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-palantir-technologies-inc-say-during-the-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpltr-26may04-heal |
| Mobileye | 37¢ | −12pp | $160 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-lyft-inc-say-during-their-next-earnings-kalshi-kxearningsmentionlyft-26may07-mobi |
| Joby | 59¢ | +1pp | $122 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-uber-technologies-inc-say-during-their-n-kalshi-kxearningsmentionuber-26may06-joby |
| USDA | 72¢ | +12pp | $100 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-palantir-technologies-inc-say-during-the-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpltr-26may04-usda |
| Social Media | 59¢ | −7pp | $46 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-airbnb-inc-say-during-their-next-earning-kalshi-kxearningsmentionabnb-26may07-soci |
| Biometric | 87¢ | +2pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-paypal-holdings-inc-say-during-their-nex-kalshi-kxearningsmentionpypl-26may05-biom |
| Shop Pay | 97¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-shopify-inc-say-during-their-next-earnin-kalshi-kxearningsmentionshop-26may05-shop |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | 49 |
| 2026-04-26 | 62 |
| 2026-05-03 | 57 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · Revenue guidance +29pp 33→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Alabama +24pp 44→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Safety −15pp 59→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · USDA +15pp 35→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Stellantis +14pp 35→49¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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