# What will Silver (SI) settle at in June — >$115

> $70-$80 leads at 23%, runner-up 22% across 8 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-silver-si-settle-june
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:43.431Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: $70-$80 at 23%
- Runner-up: $80-$90 at 22%
- Outcomes: 8 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $70-$80 | 23¢ | −1pp | $34 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-silver-si-settle-at-in-june-70-80-polymarket-0x893f70675597eeba1e8108a1e9da79387bb9f7bf56845481f246a1e8c9885101 |
| $80-$90 | 22¢ | −3pp | $309 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-silver-si-settle-at-in-june-80-90-polymarket-0x06298d988d1062d0a96369a2846a3c85a2f4e2c4ca5c31d1bbfd0ac37d1c5d56 |
| $60-$70 | 15¢ | −1pp | $563 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-silver-si-settle-at-in-june-60-70-polymarket-0x4b062c82af15ed00e6f2085e41250e48d057cc951adccacad30c976e3f7e44f8 |
| $90-$100 | 14¢ | +2pp | $54 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-silver-si-settle-at-in-june-90-100-polymarket-0xd93b72e6fa610f9896d42d8784fac9fa9f24efb49a1818a3fc73c724d45326c9 |
| $100-$115 | 11¢ | ±0 | $54 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-silver-si-settle-at-in-june-100-115-polymarket-0xdf88e78e59e5d854aeb115c92516972420d25815540d8b1418f03db92f0b3a5b |
| >$115 | 9¢ | +2pp | $314 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-silver-si-settle-at-in-june-115-polymarket-0x9a8d6ca2d11883eaa923e66ad37e3f490a4171e28003c37d07f9b1040a7cb531 |
| $50-$60 | 3¢ | ±0 | $933 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-silver-si-settle-at-in-june-50-60-polymarket-0xb98595f1e96578735a1a6c7c8143e111fc95f0d514188f50c6a649c7c9d2f022 |
| <$50 | 3¢ | ±0 | $802 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-silver-si-settle-at-in-june-50-polymarket-0xb126150973e7760b3fb30b5d4518d7ac53d744c5ac31c0716406fc894e807d84 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $70-$80 | $80-$90 | $60-$70 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 16 | 12 | 16 |
| 2026-04-25 | 20 | 17 | 18 |
| 2026-05-02 | 23 | 20 | 22 |
| 2026-05-08 | 23 | 25 | 16 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 22 | — |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · $80-$90 +5pp 20→25¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · $50-$60 −4pp 8→4¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · $60-$70 −4pp 21→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · $80-$90 +3pp 17→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · $80-$90 −3pp 25→22¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract reflects a 23% probability that silver will close June futures above $115 per ounce. The current reading suggests traders view a sustained rally to that level as unlikely in the near term. Silver prices are primarily driven by industrial demand, USD strength, and real interest rates; a weakening dollar or spike in manufacturing activity could push prices higher, while stronger-than-expected inflation data tightening monetary policy would pressure downside. The June contract expiration itself—when futures settle to spot prices—is the key event determining the outcome. Until then, Fed policy signals and economic data throughout May will be primary drivers of directional moves.

### Key factors

- Silver settled below $90/oz in late April 2026; reaching >$115 requires a 28%+ rally in roughly 4 weeks
- USD weakness and lower real interest rates have historically been the strongest correlates of silver rallies above $110
- Polymarket volume on this contract is low ($934 in 24h vol), suggesting limited conviction and potential price inefficiency
- The >$115 contract trades at 5¢ while $100-$115 trades at 11¢, indicating steep odds decline in each price bracket
- June futures contracts expire mid-month, creating a hard settlement date with no extension; spot price at expiration is the sole determinant

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-silver-si-settle-june
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=what-silver-si-settle-june

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