# What will Silver (XAGUSD) hit in April 2026 — ↑ $86

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 32% across 19 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-silver-xagusd-hit-april
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:35:50.157Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $90K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 45,000 | 28¢ | −2pp | $30K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-45000-polymarket-0x024b68f77bfc019341ee3db8f57c103334e4b9430bba4746d8c94aafd8b36fee |
| ↓ 40,000 | 22¢ | −1pp | $17K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-40000-polymarket-0x1e5564c1a2a6839cc2780a889437c63786a2c2ec5e95569b710ee659a3e8baa2 |
| ↓ 50,000 | 38¢ | −4pp | $9K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-50000-polymarket-0xce3c54c3e773e8b3bf73e4c12af93205b21195d03b9c386e22f274b9acfc2c56 |
| ↑ 110,000 | 26¢ | +1pp | $7K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-110000-polymarket-0x63eaf41ce1f475323e2202d7dfa3b1def8b82cd166f7007c50bfbf47615c7b01 |
| ↓ 1,000 | 19¢ | +1pp | $6K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-1000-polymarket-0xacb33346b59a2a3770e2391b7d1b0e77d8dcdcf840a66f5fa01d28db43c4e369 |
| ↓ 55,000 | 49¢ | −1pp | $6K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-55000-polymarket-0x752fa61c93f16c4b15e85b0bd438d9c684176b0ea7b319a84c8aca34616e8a8c |
| ↑ 80,000 | 95¢ | +3pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-80000-polymarket-0x6e1fbd722b0aca8a4e05c7c2f4ff1428d4c97f2ee02056712463d00c1c705a55 |
| Bitcoin hits $1m | 49¢ | −1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-bitcoin-hits-1m-polymarket-0xbb57ccf5853a85487bc3d83d04d669310d28c6c810758953b9d9b91d1aee89d2 |
| ↑ 90,000 | 62¢ | +4pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-90000-polymarket-0xbb379a14cd03f68c35c279ddbd928a6326f4fd2e21827f8cdaaf59715d6df50e |
| ↓ 35,000 | 14¢ | ±0 | $2K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-35000-polymarket-0x2745c38ff0617cb345c1d2df19b4f74ea777508e07411e88eeb6ab3affcda2a2 |
| ↑ 160,000 | 8¢ | +1pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-160000-polymarket-0x472c9035786b390c08e674fc60bddda488957e1b8aecad3f5480cc531a0754b0 |
| ↑ 100,000 | 41¢ | +1pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-100000-polymarket-0xdaa4866bae18be58c5a79d2aeeffd035ec78f1bb49dbd88f72993997778a990f |
| ↑ $120 | 6¢ | −1pp | $605 | polymarket | /markets/will-silver-si-hit-by-end-of-june-120-polymarket-0x1b252df7e5281d8fb86888619f4ee1f5045c9f2aecb857d361819ca6522e4665 |
| ↓ 16 | 13¢ | −8pp | $532 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-hyperliquid-hit-in-2026-16-polymarket-0x8555a03570e1eb69c94ab5d41796058d8fcb9e909a6464e6cec9ff85d199b7bf |
| ↑ 130,000 | 13¢ | −6pp | $433 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-130000-polymarket-0x885a6abefad122348b4fbd503473d7fd1f9035d0438cf988a7591620f316a859 |
| ↓ 1,500 | 48¢ | +2pp | $360 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-1500-polymarket-0xcf25ccc8360f3952139fb5e3f14cb9bb0636cb53d0e30e947321ceccab7e9780 |
| ↑ 200,000 | 4¢ | −8pp | $299 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-2026-200000-polymarket-0xac32e73aa9e0dae801d88d4f81efd2ef3fa0f04b815f3a0e74426f0762e668cd |
| ↑ 5,500 | 10¢ | −2pp | $100 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-ethereum-hit-in-2026-5500-polymarket-0xb75b8c777c5fd934d7fa43d4b3a3f630981b68a362a09471f9a6a6e36c38aac8 |
| ↓ 60 | 60¢ | −2pp | $6 | polymarket | /markets/what-price-will-solana-hit-in-2026-60-polymarket-0x0135f2ed385fd81fa2af3b98720ee3ba440ea4a719636c1493f15a23366fc27e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 39 |
| 2026-04-19 | 40 |
| 2026-04-26 | 38 |
| 2026-05-03 | 30 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · ↓ 16 +19pp 19→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · ↑ 5,500 −17pp 29→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · ↑ 5,500 +16pp 13→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · ↓ 16 −13pp 38→25¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · ↓ 45,000 −9pp 39→30¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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## License

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