# What will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit in May 2026 — ↑ $200

> ↑ 208 leads at 44%, runner-up 24% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 42 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-south-korea-etf-ewy-hit-may
Updated: 2026-05-28T19:20:07.778Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: ↑ 208 at 44%
- Runner-up: ↑ $212 at 24%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 208 | 44¢ | −10pp | $673 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-south-korea-etf-ewy-hit-in-may-2026-208-polymarket-0x57084961d5d2f50e267721a6fd4090ac3d15443e7d2f01c969a220cfe08d2516 |
| ↑ $212 | 24¢ | −16pp | $252 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-south-korea-etf-ewy-hit-in-may-2026-212-polymarket-0x88ce7e8f1d8a09b59e045bd9286e53717657da1c709fdc949dc90e7c9fc95b37 |
| ↑ $216 | 18¢ | −15pp | $850 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-south-korea-etf-ewy-hit-in-may-2026-216-polymarket-0x3a5985b34ea4167c9461eb26f9f6c6c94c3f8c63f9959b1baee54dec71071637 |
| ↑ $220 | 11¢ | −10pp | $218 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-south-korea-etf-ewy-hit-in-may-2026-220-polymarket-0x1339fb1fc87a2b158550183f65b9269151704d1c2faffc3c70fdb5e9fa21f5e0 |
| ↓ $156 | 4¢ | −6pp | $65 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-south-korea-etf-ewy-hit-in-may-2026-156-polymarket-0xdf60cf34eceaeff9b6ab80897da6b6d276c2b6810e53fbb21451a87b2efbc8bf |
| ↓ $164 | 4¢ | −9pp | $50 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-south-korea-etf-ewy-hit-in-may-2026-164-polymarket-0x8bc09ab8924253305b5e59f7e4fc16bd56f7ddeafffcac419722f130ef1bbd15 |
| ↓ $160 | 4¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-south-korea-etf-ewy-hit-in-may-2026-160-polymarket-0x4a34d2c2e756efbdefd9298ea264d0b4571cd1a895c1f95963d47d57a4ca43db |
| ↓ $144 | 3¢ | +1pp | $151 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-south-korea-etf-ewy-hit-in-may-2026-144-polymarket-0xe2d2f0d362d4da3a9cb30fcff36049d9be37bbcb584fb94065731e690f643581 |
| ↓ $146 | 3¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-south-korea-etf-ewy-hit-in-may-2026-146-polymarket-0xc67204d7f8165e7115b708f2c49e97c2f56ffb0ad32130ed4df2c7d5847e5eec |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↑ 208 | ↑ $212 | ↑ $216 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 17 | 13 | 10 |
| 2026-05-21 | 22 | 16 | 13 |
| 2026-05-28 | 38 | 30 | 18 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-26 · ↑ 208 +42pp 17→59¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · ↑ $212 +28pp 19→47¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-21 · ↓ $164 −27pp 64→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · ↓ $164 −25pp 39→14¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-21 · ↓ $160 −24pp 53→29¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates an 88% probability that South Korea's ETF (EWY) will close below $172 in May 2026, with the competing outcome of reaching above $200 priced at just 30 cents. The high confidence in a downside close reflects recent weakness in South Korean equities, likely driven by macroeconomic concerns, currency headwinds, or geopolitical tensions on the peninsula. The probability could shift significantly if positive earnings surprises emerge, the Korean won strengthens against the dollar, or regional risk premiums compress. The key catalyst remains monthly employment and inflation data from South Korea, scheduled for early June, which would clarify whether current weakness reflects temporary market volatility or sustained economic softness. Until then, traders are pricing in substantial downside protection.

### Key factors

- EWY traded above $172 for most of 2025; current below-$172 pricing suggests meaningful deterioration in fundamentals or sentiment since then
- The $200 upside contract trades at 30¢ while the $172 downside trades at 86¢, indicating asymmetric risk perception favoring lower outcomes
- South Korean won weakness versus USD increases import costs and reduces earnings translation for multinational companies in the index
- Geopolitical risk premiums (North Korea tensions, US-Korea trade policy) can swing 2-4% swiftly on headline events
- Monthly Korean economic data (employment, inflation, industrial production) releases in early June will likely trigger contract settlement

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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