# What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit in May 2026 — ↑ $750

> ↑ $760 leads at 23%, runner-up 5% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 42 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-sp-500-spy-hit-may
Updated: 2026-05-28T19:20:10.866Z
Category: markets
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: ↑ $760 at 23%
- Runner-up: ↓ $730 at 5%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $24K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $760 | 23¢ | −7pp | $16K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-sp-500-spy-hit-in-may-2026-760-polymarket-0x1bc5558aa2f7d16a74827e2f4099c549cd68b8caf3c9077c12e37e3b634017a8 |
| ↓ $730 | 5¢ | +7pp | $9K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-sp-500-spy-hit-in-may-2026-730-polymarket-0x3adeb3a96946f7765ba8b9b3ba2147422a352b5877d5bb021ee96be107d156d1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↑ $760 | ↓ $730 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 22 | 71 |
| 2026-05-21 | 13 | 49 |
| 2026-05-28 | 14 | 15 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-21 · ↓ $730 −26pp 75→49¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · ↓ $730 −18pp 33→15¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · ↑ $760 +11pp 21→32¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · ↑ $760 +10pp 13→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · ↓ $730 −9pp 49→40¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that SPY will close below $730 by May 31, 2026. Markets are currently pricing in a roughly 27% chance that SPY closes at or above $750, with the remainder split between lower price levels. The dominant $730-or-lower outcome suggests traders expect modest downside or consolidation from current levels, though the 46-cent bid on the $750+ contract indicates meaningful support for a continued rally. Key drivers include macroeconomic data releases, Federal Reserve communications, and corporate earnings reports throughout May, with the month-end close on May 29, 2026 ultimately determining the resolution. Volatility and positioning ahead of that date will likely shift probabilities significantly based on inflation reports, employment figures, and Fed guidance.

### Key factors

- SPY's current price relative to $730 threshold—traders must assess whether present levels indicate upside or downside momentum into month-end
- 24-hour volume concentration ($16.3K on the $750+ contract) suggests active disagreement about upside scenarios, indicating price discovery is ongoing
- The $730 contract trades at 73¢ versus nearby strikes at 46-47¢, showing a narrow range clustered around current support-resistance levels rather than wide dispersion
- May data calendar includes CPI release and PCE reports that historically move equities; absence of FOMC meetings in May reduces one source of potential volatility
- Distribution across nine outcomes without a clear second leader (47% runner-up) indicates uncertainty is genuine rather than consensus-driven

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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