# What will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be — 1.75-2.00T

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-spacexs-ipo-valuation
Updated: 2026-06-16T13:20:51.368Z
Category: technology · Topic: ai-tech
Status: historical

## Headline

- Probability: 94% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.75-2.00T | 94¢ | +7pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-spacexs-ipo-valuation-be-175-200t-polymarket-0xb5110caf39109c43b472e9048c29a7a337a383a6d2baed9225e8f93c69fd87af |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 60 |
| 2026-06-05 | 78 |
| 2026-06-12 | 89 |
| 2026-06-15 | 100 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-15 · 1.75-2.00T +7pp 93→100¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-13 · 1.75-2.00T +4pp 89→93¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents the market's assessment that SpaceX's valuation will land between $1.75-2.00 trillion if the company goes public. At 62% probability, this outcome is considered more likely than not, though substantial uncertainty remains across five valuation bands. SpaceX's IPO timeline and final valuation depend on company profitability, revenue growth from Starlink and launch services, and broader market conditions for mega-cap tech IPOs. The most immediate catalyst is any official announcement from SpaceX or its leadership regarding IPO timing, which would likely resolve significant portions of this uncertainty before year-end 2026.

### Key factors

- SpaceX's Starlink revenue growth trajectory and path to profitability, which directly affects enterprise valuation multiples
- Comparable market valuations for large-cap aerospace and satellite operators at the time of filing
- Prevailing IPO market conditions and investor appetite for capital-intensive space infrastructure businesses in 2026
- SpaceX's disclosed or estimated financial metrics (revenue, EBITDA, cash flow) released closer to any prospective IPO filing
- Competition from Blue Origin, Amazon's Project Kuiper, and other commercial space ventures affecting SpaceX's competitive positioning

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

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