# What will Trump say in April — N Word

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 40% across 8 contracts — refreshed 11 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-trump-say-april
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:05:49.299Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 40% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (8 contracts)
- 24h volume: $42K

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who are you with / Where are you from | 22¢ | −4pp | $21K | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-who-are-you-with-where-are-you-from-kalshi-kxtrumpsay-26may04-who |
| Karoline / Leavitt | 13¢ | −12pp | $18K | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-say-karoline-leavitt-before-may-4-2026-kalshi-kxtrumpsay-26may04-karo |
| Trump | 90¢ | +2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/what-will-markwayne-mullin-say-during-fox-news-sun-kalshi-kxfoxnewsmention-26may03-trum |
| Where We Go From Here with Bernie Sanders in Detroit?: Trump (3+ times) | 94¢ | +19pp | $889 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-bernie-sanders-say-during-fighting-oliga-kalshi-kxberniemention-26may03-trum |
| Trump | 20¢ | +8pp | $315 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-kathy-hochul-say-during-next-governor-ka-kalshi-kxhochulmention-26apr29b-trum |
| Trump / President | 60¢ | ±0 | $282 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-zohran-mamdani-say-during-next-nyc-mayor-kalshi-kxmamdanimention-26apr30-trum |
| Trump | 5¢ | +1pp | $67 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-drake-say-during-iceman-trump-kalshi-kxdrakemention-26may15-trum |
| Trump | 13¢ | +1pp | $35 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-walt-disney-company-say-during-their-kalshi-kxearningsmentiondis-26may06-trum |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | 4 |
| 2026-04-26 | 7 |
| 2026-05-03 | 28 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · Trump +41pp 2→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Trump −24pp 31→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Where We Go From Here with Bernie Sanders in Detroit?: Trump (3+ times) +19pp 66→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Karoline / Leavitt −18pp 52→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Who are you with / Where are you from −15pp 37→22¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-trump-say-april
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=what-trump-say-april
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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