What will Trump say in May
Leader sits at 38% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 33%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
America Last
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
33¢
Skedaddle
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$206
thin orderbook
Closes
May 31, 2026
6 days
Venue
Polymarket
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Trump say in May
What will Trump say in May?: Discombobulator / Discombobulated
0xb5e5eb…61d3
What will Trump say in May?: Cat
0xf86769…2e80
What will Trump say in May?: Buy Dell Computer / Buy a Dell Computer
0xaf25ac…17c6
What will Trump say in May?: Nuke
0xd17239…cc52
What will Trump say in May?: America Last
0xa007fd…b55d
What will Trump say in May?: Egghead
0x64d217…a7d5
What will Trump say in May?: Asshole
0x7cb5a1…930b
What will Trump say in May?: Bunker
0xc351b8…368d
What will Trump say in May?: Braggadocious
0x12ee56…0d37
What will Trump say in May?: Bitcoin
0x4c9f02…6d4b
What will Trump say in May?: Neville / Chamberlain
0x49088a…2c65
What will Trump say in May?: Prediction Market
0xab997d…0094
What will Trump say in May?: Barack Hussein Obamacare
0x9a6e40…b744
What will Trump say in May?: Pizza
0x8b47db…126a
What will Trump say in May?: Golden Dome
0x682d9f…0865
What will Trump say in May?: Darth Vader
0x659e53…e63e
What will Trump say in May?: Epstein
0x1370bc…8521
What will Trump say in May?: Skedaddle
0x0bfd96…8e97
What will Trump say in May?: Christmas
0x063110…7d41
What will Trump say in May?: Iwo Jima
0x595767…2fbf
Analysis
This market predicts whether former President Trump will say one of twenty specific phrases during May 2026. The leading outcome—quoted at 43%—indicates traders assign better-than-even odds against any single phrase occurring. The market's structure means resolution depends on Trump's exact statements captured in speeches, interviews, or public remarks during the month. Volume concentrates on outcomes like 'Nuke' (30¢) and 'Iwo Jima' (21¢), suggesting these phrases carry elevated perceived likelihood relative to outliers like 'Darth Vader' (4¢). Uncertainty stems from the inherent unpredictability of which specific phrase, if any, Trump articulates—and whether borderline phrasings satisfy resolution criteria. The month concludes May 31st, making late-month statements the final resolution catalyst.
- ›The leader at 43% reflects cumulative probability that none of the twenty phrases occur during May; resolution requires exact or substantially matching language
- ›Trading volume and price clustering around 'Nuke' (30¢) and 'Iwo Jima' (21¢) suggest these phrases have higher perceived likelihood than rare outliers like 'Darth Vader'
- ›Resolution depends on verifiable statements from speeches, interviews, or public remarks; ambiguous phrasings or paraphrases may dispute outcomes
- ›May 31st represents the hard deadline; statements made after that date fall outside scope regardless of prediction timing
- ›The 20-contract structure creates a zero-sum environment where any single phrase occurrence redirects all liquidity to that outcome's holder
What moved the line
- May 24Egghead↓12pp41→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 24Pizza↑7pp29→36¢ · Polymarket
- May 24Cat↑3pp33→36¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in trump
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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