# What will Trump say in May

> Cat leads at 30%, runner-up 24% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-trump-say-may
Updated: 2026-05-24T23:20:07.033Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: Cat at 30%
- Runner-up: Iwo Jima at 24%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $308

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cat | 30¢ | +3pp | $37 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-trump-say-in-may-cat-polymarket-0xf867694a419cd8ef9c8633c4dcc39df8f3aa0ae953c973408596408922492e80 |
| Iwo Jima | 24¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-trump-say-in-may-iwo-jima-polymarket-0x5957671fa6d0cb7e71bb3cebd0715a73872210b02baad4ddf11a6b601f532fbf |
| America Last | 21¢ | — | $14 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-trump-say-in-may-america-last-polymarket-0xa007fdf5551e16a4f22b084146bbfd5ce58af3bb1af2869ff14fc7a5065db55d |
| Bunker | 20¢ | — | $6 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-trump-say-in-may-bunker-polymarket-0xc351b8cbea504ea77349d546b9a97c6dd456faab03ea8f693a1b242ea232368d |
| Bitcoin | 20¢ | ±0 | $2 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-trump-say-in-may-bitcoin-polymarket-0x4c9f02ab9dbced0fae73a56ef51d9bd60894afbc0250790997ffb32562dc6d4b |
| Golden Dome | 19¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-trump-say-in-may-golden-dome-polymarket-0x682d9f1f32aaf02f49152a418b3d6f760cc1bbc715a94395da902a82e5140865 |
| Buy Dell Computer / Buy a Dell Computer | 18¢ | — | $43 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-trump-say-in-may-buy-dell-computer-buy-a-polymarket-0xaf25ac07d103857daa07a2545578978f5927d0d93d185f7620c0184080c017c6 |
| Neville / Chamberlain | 18¢ | — | $1 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-trump-say-in-may-neville-chamberlain-polymarket-0x49088a21f034788c5c53a9302d87ebd55548b53a59cdb1af88f42f4b25c12c65 |
| Braggadocious | 17¢ | — | $2 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-trump-say-in-may-braggadocious-polymarket-0x12ee56fddc580c8b35058e5b1b466c53c1c34554d1dac209b11a12ad2bae0d37 |
| Nuke | 17¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-trump-say-in-may-nuke-polymarket-0xd17239d94f2af2f6bda410d56c82ca651851c6fd8360359d2021bf665a63cc52 |
| Pizza | 17¢ | +7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-trump-say-in-may-pizza-polymarket-0x8b47dbafe7e5ad0ee6ec568bfac9f40cdf9a06c8b757286f8531f06b767a126a |
| Christmas | 16¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-trump-say-in-may-christmas-polymarket-0x063110a916f8d4c25f7f1ecb7522b20064735c03273ab1c3d8867522e5a07d41 |
| Skedaddle | 15¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-trump-say-in-may-skedaddle-polymarket-0x0bfd969a99f03edc62b8e2a5833f11d4989244caf939fbdc8954c10d03958e97 |
| Asshole | 14¢ | +2pp | $7 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-trump-say-in-may-asshole-polymarket-0x7cb5a1fa16179792b29c30bfda0c75fcdada2750e1942c821ad8cfdd7f7c930b |
| Prediction Market | 14¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-trump-say-in-may-prediction-market-polymarket-0xab997db257c2ba058fde98f3022b9d24ecba96cc658a11b81c425b27e3720094 |
| Egghead | 13¢ | −12pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-trump-say-in-may-egghead-polymarket-0x64d2173d0afbc0da4671b439314b7495c51810b94c0484a8e92ed28c3893a7d5 |
| Epstein | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-trump-say-in-may-epstein-polymarket-0x1370bc457e501465c15c52e4c6037472142e06671e71fcf6e5c8c432e34c8521 |
| Discombobulator / Discombobulated | 12¢ | — | $54 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-trump-say-in-may-discombobulator-discomb-polymarket-0xb5e5eb3a7bb9a0b66cfef919fb5322d34c155e1d49719134596300d6817061d3 |
| Barack Hussein Obamacare | 9¢ | — | $9 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-trump-say-in-may-barack-hussein-obamacar-polymarket-0x9a6e40b9ded8f3b71d84bb6d09bfa7f0e0f7f3e00c445a90f2f842b9857db744 |
| Darth Vader | 4¢ | — | $123 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-trump-say-in-may-darth-vader-polymarket-0x659e535b62ce1ad84ab93739708a922a26e189c5e9a44b823233b8170704e63e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Cat | Iwo Jima | America Last |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | 33 | 26 | 41 |
| 2026-05-24 | 36 | 24 | — |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-24 · Egghead −12pp 41→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · Pizza +7pp 29→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · Cat +3pp 33→36¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market predicts whether former President Trump will say one of twenty specific phrases during May 2026. The leading outcome—quoted at 43%—indicates traders assign better-than-even odds against any single phrase occurring. The market's structure means resolution depends on Trump's exact statements captured in speeches, interviews, or public remarks during the month. Volume concentrates on outcomes like 'Nuke' (30¢) and 'Iwo Jima' (21¢), suggesting these phrases carry elevated perceived likelihood relative to outliers like 'Darth Vader' (4¢). Uncertainty stems from the inherent unpredictability of which specific phrase, if any, Trump articulates—and whether borderline phrasings satisfy resolution criteria. The month concludes May 31st, making late-month statements the final resolution catalyst.

### Key factors

- The leader at 43% reflects cumulative probability that none of the twenty phrases occur during May; resolution requires exact or substantially matching language
- Trading volume and price clustering around 'Nuke' (30¢) and 'Iwo Jima' (21¢) suggest these phrases have higher perceived likelihood than rare outliers like 'Darth Vader'
- Resolution depends on verifiable statements from speeches, interviews, or public remarks; ambiguous phrasings or paraphrases may dispute outcomes
- May 31st represents the hard deadline; statements made after that date fall outside scope regardless of prediction timing
- The 20-contract structure creates a zero-sum environment where any single phrase occurrence redirects all liquidity to that outcome's holder

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

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