# What Trump-named things will Trump mention in April

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 35% across 17 contracts — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-trumpnamed-things-trump-mention-april
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:35:58.757Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 35% (liquidity-weighted across 17 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 34% / Polymarket 52% — 18pp spread
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (17)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Where We Go From Here with Bernie Sanders in Detroit?: Trump (3+ times) | 93¢ | +19pp | $941 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-bernie-sanders-say-during-fighting-oliga-kalshi-kxberniemention-26may03-trum |
| Trump out as President | 52¢ | ±0 | $568 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-trump-out-as-presid-polymarket-0x84f8b70331323c2fba97d7ceaa9a35fb645a0770d0dbff169d07f24f376766e9 |
| Not nine justices | 7¢ | −2pp | $464 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-supreme-court-look-like-at-the-end-o-kalshi-kxscotuspower-29-29jan20-r0-0 |
| Trump | 4¢ | +8pp | $315 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-kathy-hochul-say-during-next-governor-ka-kalshi-kxhochulmention-26apr29b-trum |
| Trump / President | 60¢ | ±0 | $295 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-zohran-mamdani-say-during-next-nyc-mayor-kalshi-kxmamdanimention-26apr30-trum |
| At least 5000 | 31¢ | +2pp | $235 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-average-number-of-measles-cases-be-d-kalshi-kxavgmeaslesdjt-29-5000 |
| 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals | 72¢ | +1pp | $166 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-supreme-court-look-like-at-the-end-o-kalshi-kxscotuspower-29-29jan20-r6-3 |
| Trump | 6¢ | +1pp | $67 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-drake-say-during-iceman-trump-kalshi-kxdrakemention-26may15-trum |
| Trump | 14¢ | +1pp | $33 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-walt-disney-company-say-during-their-kalshi-kxearningsmentiondis-26may06-trum |
| 7 Conservatives and 2 Liberals | 11¢ | +2pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-supreme-court-look-like-at-the-end-o-kalshi-kxscotuspower-29-29jan20-r7-2 |
| At least 2000 | 84¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-average-number-of-measles-cases-be-d-kalshi-kxavgmeaslesdjt-29-2000 |
| a case primarily related to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump | 36¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-cases-will-the-supreme-court-agree-to-hear-be-kalshi-kxtrumptariffhear-27jan-x |
| Houston | 25¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-cities-will-trump-send-the-national-guard-to-kalshi-kxnguardcity-26-hou |
| Detroit | 30¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-cities-will-trump-send-the-national-guard-to-kalshi-kxnguardcity-26-det |
| San Francisco | 16¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-cities-will-trump-send-the-national-guard-to-kalshi-kxnguardcity-26-sf |
| Chicago | 30¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-cities-will-trump-send-the-national-guard-to-kalshi-kxnguardcity-26-chi |
| Portland | 21¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-cities-will-trump-send-the-national-guard-to-kalshi-kxnguardcity-26-por |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 39 |
| 2026-04-19 | 43 |
| 2026-04-26 | 22 |
| 2026-05-03 | 21 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · Trump +41pp 2→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Trump −24pp 31→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Where We Go From Here with Bernie Sanders in Detroit?: Trump (3+ times) +19pp 66→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-30 · Trump −12pp 43→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Trump / President +9pp 43→52¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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