# What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026 — ↑ $110

> ↓ $90 leads at 81%, runner-up 46% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/what-wti-crude-oil-wti-hit-may
Updated: 2026-05-25T00:20:12.910Z
Category: markets · Topic: oil
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: ↓ $90 at 81%
- Runner-up: ↓ $85 at 46%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $712K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ $90 | 81¢ | +24pp | $108K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-wti-crude-oil-wti-hit-in-may-2026-90-polymarket-0x96d62023398788f44afff65cd3513eddc9bdb0fddaaf15206212f076721167a7 |
| ↓ $85 | 46¢ | +18pp | $75K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-wti-crude-oil-wti-hit-in-may-2026-85-polymarket-0x59a37ea3830d532957b04d3c437a329e14a5dc840096d48c7ee4b55ba3d9cca8 |
| ↑ $105 | 21¢ | −25pp | $53K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-wti-crude-oil-wti-hit-in-may-2026-105-polymarket-0x4788c5625061cf39da5265dec7d29103d5c8adf774d49b1ffae9025c4563dc9a |
| ↓ $80 | 17¢ | +13pp | $94K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-wti-crude-oil-wti-hit-in-may-2026-80-polymarket-0xa96e71186507bf493bd1fb8101418c369c6296a29b49514fdec3f7bfe7197909 |
| ↑ $110 | 12¢ | −5pp | $210K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-wti-crude-oil-wti-hit-in-may-2026-110-polymarket-0x4bab360a81b57047b48c0dd7c6c1377706129e3e6b9fa3f079cc28d310ec4cec |
| ↑ $115 | 5¢ | −6pp | $72K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-wti-crude-oil-wti-hit-in-may-2026-115-polymarket-0xdeb0a6abf730d613190d1b49e64bbedb2af0cc14f8a6f87e8da9282e64c29c0b |
| ↑ $120 | 4¢ | −6pp | $100K | polymarket | /markets/what-will-wti-crude-oil-wti-hit-in-may-2026-120-polymarket-0x416e3cbe25a60b8210f4e67c056ea2b03f4d511e7b969826d69ef90b753ff214 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↓ $90 | ↓ $85 | ↑ $105 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 32 | 19 | — |
| 2026-05-21 | 45 | 24 | 49 |
| 2026-05-22 | 50 | 26 | 53 |
| 2026-05-23 | 55 | 40 | 48 |
| 2026-05-24 | 79 | 58 | 23 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-24 · ↑ $105 −25pp 48→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · ↓ $90 +24pp 55→79¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · ↓ $85 +18pp 40→58¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-20 · ↑ $110 −16pp 60→44¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-23 · ↓ $85 +14pp 26→40¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market is asking whether WTI crude oil will reach $110 per barrel at any point during May 2026. Currently trading at 56% probability, the contract reflects expectations that prices are more likely to exceed this threshold than stay below it. The outcome depends on global supply-demand dynamics, OPEC+ production decisions, and geopolitical developments affecting oil exports. Upward pressure could come from supply disruptions, increased demand, or production cuts, while downward pressure would result from demand weakness or supply increases. The contract resolves when May concludes, making real-time price movements through the month the primary driver of final probability. The runner-up contract ($95 threshold at 47%) suggests markets expect volatility within a $95–$110 range, with moderate conviction that the higher level gets breached.

### Key factors

- WTI has been trading in the $70–$90 range historically; reaching $110 would require either a significant supply shock or sustained demand surge within the next month
- OPEC+ production decisions and compliance rates directly influence supply; any announced cuts or disruptions to member production would increase the probability of hitting $110
- Geopolitical tensions affecting major producers (Middle East, Russia, Venezuela) create tail risk for supply disruptions that could push prices sharply higher
- The runner-up contract at $95 (47% probability) shows market consensus clusters around a $95–$110 band, indicating meaningful uncertainty between these two levels rather than strong directional conviction
- May 2026 contract expires at month-end, so all price discovery occurs within 12 days from today; near-term news flow on supply, demand, or geopolitical events will drive rapid repricing

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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