# When will Bitcoin hit $150k — by December 31, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 9 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/when-bitcoin-hit-150k
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: crypto · Topic: bitcoin
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 6% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| by December 31, 2026 | 6¢ | −1pp | $6K | polymarket | /markets/when-will-bitcoin-hit-150k-by-december-31-2026-polymarket-0x02deb9538f5c123373adaa4ee6217b01745f1662bc902e46ac92f3fe6f8741e8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 9 |
| 2026-06-01 | 7 |
| 2026-06-12 | 7 |
| 2026-06-16 | 6 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 8% probability reflects market consensus that Bitcoin has roughly a 1-in-12 chance of reaching $150,000 by year-end 2026—a gain of approximately 70% from current levels in roughly 7 months. The low probability pricing suggests traders view this move as requiring significant catalysts. Bitcoin's price is driven by macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, institutional adoption rates, and technical momentum. Key near-term catalysts include Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and broader risk-asset sentiment. Historical volatility during election years and monetary policy shifts could shift this probability meaningfully. The resolution depends entirely on spot price action; any price-discovery mechanisms or derivatives moves don't affect the outcome.

### Key factors

- Bitcoin would need to appreciate approximately 70% in 7 months, requiring annualized gains exceeding 120%, which is attainable but uncommon outside bull-market conditions
- Federal Reserve monetary policy stance and inflation data releases through Q4 2026 will materially influence risk appetite and asset valuations
- Regulatory announcements regarding cryptocurrency classification, taxation, or institutional custody rules could shift adoption rates and price discovery
- Market structure factors including options expiration dates, futures funding rates, and spot exchange order flow can amplify or dampen volatility needed for this move
- Bitcoin's correlation with equities and risk assets means broad market drawdowns or recessions would work against the target, while risk-on sentiment would support it

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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