# When will the DHS shutdown end

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 16 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/when-dhs-shutdown-end
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:59.656Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 16 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $141K

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney Sweeney | 19¢ | −1pp | $44K | kalshi | /markets/will-sydney-sweeney-attend-the-met-gala-2026-sydne-kalshi-kxmetgala-26-syd |
| Chappell Roan | 31¢ | −4pp | $15K | kalshi | /markets/will-chappell-roan-attend-the-met-gala-2026-chappe-kalshi-kxmetgala-cha |
| Zendaya | 4¢ | +2pp | $13K | kalshi | /markets/will-zendaya-attend-the-met-gala-2026-zendaya-kalshi-kxmetgala-zen |
| Yes, 3-6% | 68¢ | −5pp | $12K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-yes-in-the-2026-vir-kalshi-kxmovvaredistrict-26apr21-yes-p4 |
| G2 Esports | 69¢ | +5pp | $10K | kalshi | /markets/will-g2-esports-win-the-natus-vincere-vs-g2-esport-kalshi-kxlolgame-26may031315navig2-g2 |
| Jacob Elordi | 26¢ | −6pp | $10K | kalshi | /markets/will-jacob-elordi-attend-the-met-gala-2026-jacob-e-kalshi-kxmetgala-jac |
| Lady Gaga | 32¢ | −16pp | $10K | kalshi | /markets/will-lady-gaga-attend-the-met-gala-2026-lady-gaga-kalshi-kxmetgala-26-lad |
| Timothée Chalamet | 44¢ | −18pp | $9K | kalshi | /markets/will-timothe-chalamet-attend-the-met-gala-2026-tim-kalshi-kxmetgala-tim |
| Meryl Streep | 4¢ | −4pp | $7K | kalshi | /markets/will-meryl-streep-attend-the-met-gala-2026-meryl-s-kalshi-kxmetgala-26-mer |
| Rory McIlroy | 8¢ | +1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-rory-mcilroy-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-in-th-kalshi-kxpgar1lead-pgc26-rmci |
| Above 3.6% | 64¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-36-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t3.6 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 9¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-scottie-scheffler-lead-at-the-end-of-round-1-kalshi-kxpgar1lead-pgc26-ssch |
| Above 4.0% | 3¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-40-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t4.0 |
| Cameron Young | 25¢ | −19pp | $617 | kalshi | /markets/will-cameron-young-lead-at-the-end-of-round-3-in-t-kalshi-kxpgar3lead-pgc26-came |
| Dividend | 32¢ | −4pp | $606 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-mcdonalds-corporation-say-during-their-n-kalshi-kxearningsmentionmcd-26may07-divi |
| Robert Menendez Jr. | 85¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-robert-menendez-jr-be-the-democratic-nominee-kalshi-kxnjprimary-08d26-rmen |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 42 |
| 2026-04-19 | 39 |
| 2026-04-26 | 45 |
| 2026-05-03 | 30 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-26 · Robert Menendez Jr. +52pp 21→73¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Zendaya −36pp 40→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Zendaya −22pp 72→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Chappell Roan +21pp 22→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Meryl Streep −21pp 62→41¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/when-dhs-shutdown-end
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=when-dhs-shutdown-end

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.