# When will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair

> Closed. Last odds frozen 5 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/when-jerome-powell-depart-as-fed-chair
Updated: 2026-05-23T19:20:12.520Z
Category: economy · Topic: fed-rate
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-07-03

## Headline

- Probability: 96% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 15–22 | 96¢ | +1pp | $5K | polymarket | /markets/when-will-jerome-powell-depart-as-fed-chair-may-15-polymarket-0x0ebc73f34cfd4f159c1da12f7ba118d799b98c2d39d84cbfd6aea919c1c992db |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | 93 |
| 2026-05-14 | 99 |
| 2026-05-21 | 97 |
| 2026-05-22 | 98 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

Markets are currently pricing a 64% probability that Jerome Powell will depart as Fed Chair between May 15–22, 2026. This reflects trader expectations about the timing of his exit from the position, with the bulk of probability mass concentrated in this narrow window rather than spread across later dates. The high concentration in the May 15–22 contract, versus only 20% assigned to May 23–29 and minimal probability for June dates, suggests traders expect either an announcement or departure event within days. Key factors influencing this probability include scheduled Fed communications, economic data releases, and political developments that might trigger or confirm Powell's departure timeline. The outcome will be determined by official announcements from the Federal Reserve or White House regarding Powell's transition plans or actual departure from office.

### Key factors

- The 64% probability is concentrated in a specific 8-day window (May 15–22), indicating traders expect a near-term trigger or announcement rather than a later departure
- Trading volume is highest in the nearest-term contract ($22,105 24h volume), with dramatically lower volume in subsequent weekly windows, suggesting limited conviction about later outcomes
- Powell's current term runs until 2026, making spring 2026 a plausible timeframe for succession planning or transition announcements in typical presidential cycles
- Any official Fed communication, presidential statement, or Senate confirmation hearing regarding Fed leadership would directly resolve or shift probabilities
- The runner-up contract (May 23–29) captures only 20% probability, meaning markets assign roughly 80% odds that if departure occurs, it happens in the May 15–22 window or not at all during these early June weeks

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

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