# Where will Maxx Crosby play in 2026

> Las Vegas Raiders leads at 86%, runner-up 15% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/where-maxx-crosby-play
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:35:55.490Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-01

## Headline

- Leader: Las Vegas Raiders at 86%
- Runner-up: Atlanta Falcons at 15%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $689

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | 86¢ | +8pp | $64 | polymarket | /markets/where-will-maxx-crosby-play-in-2026-las-vegas-raid-polymarket-0x1094ecea23c60cab92897c46389b04a700900ca9a5b070845eada0cb84215926 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 15¢ | −14pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/where-will-maxx-crosby-play-in-2026-atlanta-falcon-polymarket-0x2a2f7c57828c971ac07c56070e76306a052439731edf1f55fbb83f86dd454a59 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 11¢ | −1pp | $118 | polymarket | /markets/where-will-maxx-crosby-play-in-2026-philadelphia-e-polymarket-0x346864337e5e5a2ccb71352f32b1e524d134a484deacd963b0adbdd082554ee3 |
| Tennessee Titans | 9¢ | −26pp | $87 | polymarket | /markets/where-will-maxx-crosby-play-in-2026-tennessee-tita-polymarket-0x7c3818e93223f0065cac118ee24abefb55efdd71184a47f51414e93fc26ea301 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6¢ | ±0 | $63 | polymarket | /markets/where-will-maxx-crosby-play-in-2026-cincinnati-ben-polymarket-0x7d092b6017a094e3e06e5335edfaa602c828d5420622c9db87ff5a0f354ed476 |
| Green Bay Packers | 4¢ | −28pp | $120 | polymarket | /markets/where-will-maxx-crosby-play-in-2026-green-bay-pack-polymarket-0x7ba306e46fb6465ac69a95cb39c29fab9b85ca692de8f8ae23d4ae189ede73de |
| San Francisco 49ers | 4¢ | −11pp | $57 | polymarket | /markets/where-will-maxx-crosby-play-in-2026-san-francisco-polymarket-0xae9013a920369d1befd7e0395861d712149c74a183628cfe485b657f3c429f0b |
| Buffalo Bills | 4¢ | −13pp | $57 | polymarket | /markets/where-will-maxx-crosby-play-in-2026-buffalo-bills-polymarket-0xd4822c46c7832910adf3ce45770e8fd22925e7726ed4910453ae4b979a78235f |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3¢ | +1pp | $57 | polymarket | /markets/where-will-maxx-crosby-play-in-2026-seattle-seahaw-polymarket-0x16b7c98db6fae975b5c18fd44c86ee419e9d0f2cca1678877cd0c072b01f42f3 |
| New England Patriots | 3¢ | +1pp | $57 | polymarket | /markets/where-will-maxx-crosby-play-in-2026-new-england-pa-polymarket-0xc1e89745d47201cc7ef7088e5d415b2b7181f776b078a19a58686c8f192ddf27 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Las Vegas Raiders | Atlanta Falcons | Philadelphia Eagles |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 79 | — | — |
| 2026-04-14 | 84 | — | 8 |
| 2026-04-19 | 73 | 0 | 10 |
| 2026-04-25 | 74 | 1 | 11 |
| 2026-04-26 | 74 | 0 | — |
| 2026-05-02 | 86 | 31 | 10 |
| 2026-05-03 | — | 17 | — |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · Cincinnati Bengals +49pp 0→49¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Buffalo Bills +48pp 1→49¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Tennessee Titans +44pp 1→45¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · Green Bay Packers +42pp 2→44¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · Atlanta Falcons +39pp 1→40¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The market is pricing an 86% probability that Maxx Crosby will remain with the Las Vegas Raiders in 2026, while alternative outcomes like Detroit (5%) or Tennessee (9%) trade at significantly lower prices. This reflects the base case that Crosby stays put, though his contract status and any team restructuring could alter this outcome. The main factors moving this probability would be trade rumors, contract negotiations, or unexpected roster changes by Las Vegas. Resolution depends on official NFL roster announcements or trades, which occur primarily during offseason windows and free agency periods. Near-term catalysts include any public statements from Raiders management about retention plans or sudden trade activity involving defensive players.

### Key factors

- Crosby's existing contract with Las Vegas and any active contract discussions or holdouts
- Raiders' stated priority regarding defensive retention and organizational stability heading into 2026
- Trade activity or salary cap movements involving Crosby or comparable edge rushers around the NFL
- Injury status or performance-related factors that could influence team or player decisions
- Public reporting or official statements from Raiders organization regarding long-term defensive plans

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/where-maxx-crosby-play
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=where-maxx-crosby-play

## License

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