# Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen

> Pakistan leads at 68%, runner-up 22% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/where-next-usiran-diplomatic-meeting-happen
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.323Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: Pakistan at 68%
- Runner-up: No Meeting by June 30 at 22%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $16K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan | 68¢ | +2pp | $5K | polymarket | /markets/where-will-the-next-us-iran-diplomatic-meeting-hap-polymarket-0x0f3062f421a43ab9af2f3dc9c3eef48e2aab38a4c9858aca7651947642c4c964 |
| No Meeting by June 30 | 22¢ | +4pp | $7K | polymarket | /markets/where-will-the-next-us-iran-diplomatic-meeting-hap-polymarket-0x189c38e8bf3733572f401f8d578099f7233baef3d5fcb438b4eeb0b73bacc787 |
| Switzerland | 4¢ | −1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/where-will-the-next-us-iran-diplomatic-meeting-hap-polymarket-0x291ff8aa0b7439389820e49584499d6dc65cf617dde1a47c4b84d05f42c85639 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Pakistan | No Meeting by June 30 | Switzerland |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 62 | 28 | 6 |
| 2026-05-07 | 64 | 25 | 5 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 29 | — |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · No Meeting by June 30 +4pp 25→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · No Meeting by June 30 −3pp 28→25¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/where-next-usiran-diplomatic-meeting-happen
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=where-next-usiran-diplomatic-meeting-happen
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.