# Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record — 3

> 2 leads at 61%, runner-up 29% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 42 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/where-rank-among-hottest-years-record
Updated: 2026-06-08T06:20:09.489Z
Category: climate
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: 2 at 61%
- Runner-up: 1 at 29%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $9K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 61¢ | −2pp | $135 | polymarket | /markets/where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-re-polymarket-0x376f0a5ce8279b4bf840018217487848634b686a9669c8c2d79eca67410b1aeb |
| 1 | 29¢ | −3pp | $8K | polymarket | /markets/where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-re-polymarket-0xe67f4d31f0eba1b009b49d7a7739b2a5f53a2d7d979a0902b465a510492c33bb |
| 4 | 5¢ | +1pp | $346 | polymarket | /markets/where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-re-polymarket-0x6c8a4426ea2278ce7936c770cbf4d66ad2dead1c8ee50e90232e0379f6f42562 |
| 6 or lower | 4¢ | ±0 | $689 | polymarket | /markets/where-will-2026-rank-among-the-hottest-years-on-re-polymarket-0x284c11566675c2764eeca776d2e0834fefc1430514b7b55adbb690d2fbbf678e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 2 | 1 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 53 | 42 | — |
| 2026-05-21 | — | — | 4 |
| 2026-05-24 | 65 | 26 | 4 |
| 2026-05-25 | 59 | 32 | — |
| 2026-06-01 | 60 | 33 | — |
| 2026-06-02 | 62 | 31 | 3 |
| 2026-06-07 | 61 | 31 | 5 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-05 · 1 +4pp 29→33¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · 1 −3pp 34→31¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

Markets currently estimate a 56% probability that 2026 will rank as the third-hottest year on record, with a 33% chance it ranks second. This reflects expectations based on current climate trends, ocean temperatures, and historical warming patterns. The probability would shift if near-term monthly temperature data diverges significantly from forecasts or if El Niño/La Niña conditions intensify or weaken unexpectedly. Annual temperature rankings are finalized by major climate agencies (NOAA, NASA, WMO) typically in January 2027, making this a medium-term resolved market. The current odds suggest significant uncertainty between ranking outcomes 1–3, with minimal probability assigned to rankings 4 or lower, indicating broad consensus that 2026 will be among the warmest years recorded.

### Key factors

- Global temperature data from January–April 2026 shows how 2026 tracks relative to 2023 (currently warmest on record) and 2024; sustained anomalies above or below expectations shift ranking probabilities
- Monthly NOAA and NASA temperature releases through December 2026 will be observed; sustained patterns diverging from historical trends would alter market expectations materially
- Oceanic heat content measurements and sea-surface temperatures are leading indicators; significant cooling or warming events (persistent La Niña vs. warm conditions) directly influence annual rankings
- El Niño/La Niña phase strength during 2026 affects global temperature; transitions between phases create upside or downside volatility for final rankings
- Official year-end temperature rankings from NOAA, NASA, and other agencies (released January 2027) will resolve the contract; methodology differences between agencies occasionally create minor ranking variations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/where-rank-among-hottest-years-record
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=where-rank-among-hottest-years-record

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.